San Francisco Frontiers - Canada's Carney stands up to Trump, despite risks

"We will not allow any nation to determine our future. We will set our own course to keep building Canada strong for all," Carney said Friday, as negotiations for a bilateral trade deal were crumbling.

After weeks of talks with US officials in an effort to avoid punitive duties, Carney walked away just ahead of the deadline set by Trump.

That triggered 50-percent US tariffs impacting some $20 billion worth of goods, from hockey sticks to cement, effective Saturday.

Carney then announced retaliatory duties on US goods, notably steel and dairy products, to take effect on September 8.

"Our government understood before many that America would transform all of its commercial relationships, that it would put a series of tariffs on its closest allies, and use economic integration as a weapon," Carney said Saturday.

"We recognize that sometimes its signature was written in pencil."

He pledged that his country would match the US tariffs "dollar for dollar to protect our workers and businesses."

- 'Hard line' -

Carney, the former head of the central banks of Canada and Britain, earned full support across Canada's political spectrum, with opposition leader Pierre Poilievre calling on citizens to "stand united to defend our country against these unfair attacks on our jobs and businesses."

The Globe and Mail in an editorial said: "In the end, Prime Minister Mark Carney took the hint from the Canadian public rather than the bait from the American president."

A poll published earlier in the week revealed that 56 percent of Canadians surveyed wanted their government to take a "hard line" and make no more concessions to Washington on trade.

Since Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, Canada has been in his crosshairs on the subject.

The Republican billionaire was irked by Carney's widely-touted January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in which the prime minister declared a "rupture" in the US-led world order.

Trump has also repeatedly said he wants to make the Group of Seven nation the 51st US state.

Canadians have taken it badly.

Many provinces, which have authority over the sales of alcohol, removed US wine and spirits from their shelves.

In recent months, Carney has faced increasing calls to play the energy card to put pressure on Trump. So far, he has not gone that far.

"Canada fuels American growth, supplying 99 percent of their natural gas imports, 85 percent of their electricity imports, 60 percent of their crude oil imports," Carney said Saturday.

"I don't think they want us to stop sending any of that energy."

- 'Real' economic cost -

The United States remains by far Canada's biggest trading partner, with Canadian exports to its neighbor representing 70 percent of its overall total.

Tariffs are already having a deep impact on key sectors in Canada such as the steel and auto industries.

Standing up to Trump thus is hardly risk-free for Carney, who hopes that his plans to diversify Canada's economy by developing new trade partners will allow Ottawa to reduce its dependence on Washington.

While the new US duties only affect 5.5 percent of those exports, "the economic cost of the increase is real nonetheless," according to analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada.

Quebec and Ontario provinces in eastern Canada, the country's economic powerhouses, are especially expected to feel the pinch, they said.

Beyond the immediate consequences, the Trump administration's "unpredictability" with respect to Canada "is a weight on business confidence across all trade exposed industries, not just those directly targeted with tariffs," the RBC analysts warned.

Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, said in a post on X that if the tariffs remain in place over the long run, it could result in the loss of 90,000 Canadian jobs.

W.Thompson--SFF