San Francisco Frontiers - US primaries test Democrat comeback hopes in Trump stronghold

Once one of America's key swing states, Florida has moved sharply to the right over the past decade, with President Donald Trump carrying it by 13 points in 2024 and Republicans dominating statewide offices.

But Democrats need a net gain of only three seats nationally to retake the House of Representatives in November, making Florida unexpectedly important to Republican hopes of preserving their narrow majority.

A mid-decade redistricting pushed through by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has created four clear opportunities for the party to flip Democratic-held House seats.

"The task shouldn't be too hard given how favorable the political climate has become for them," NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki wrote of Democrats' nationwide prospects.

"But Republicans can alter that math if their gerrymander in Florida bears fruit," he added. "Simply put, they need every additional seat they can get -- badly."

The new boundaries have forced several Democratic incumbents into significantly more Republican territory and triggered a scramble for safer seats.

Two are seeking reelection in districts Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

Another -- running in a newly configured conservative district -- is being challenged by a democratic socialist from the party's insurgent left, which has claimed primary victories elsewhere this year.

- Contentious races -

Florida Democrats are also looking for evidence that they can again compete statewide.

Former Republican congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat and prominent Trump critic, is favored for his party's gubernatorial nomination.

Republicans are widely expected to choose Trump-backed congressman Byron Donalds to succeed term-limited DeSantis, making him a strong favorite to become Florida's first Black governor.

He faces a challenge from businessman James Fishback, a white candidate who has been criticized for racially-tinged remarks such as referring to Donalds as a "slave" to donors and a "DEI Republican."

The Democratic Senate primary pits retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman -- a central witness in Trump's first impeachment -- against a left-wing state legislator.

Republicans also face several contentious House primaries.

Their candidates include a lawmaker who denies allegations of assault and revenge porn threats, an Israel supporter criticized for anti-Muslim rhetoric, and a social media personality who has run an openly anti-Semitic campaign.

Florida is not the only state voting Tuesday.

Alaska is holding primaries for Senate and House, while Wyoming Republicans are choosing nominees for governor, Senate and an open House seat.

California voters are also deciding, via a special congressional election, between two Democrats vying to replace Eric Swalwell, who quit the House in April amid allegations of sexual misconduct that he denies.

The race has pulled in millions of dollars in outside spending from groups linked to the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC.

Trump voted by mail in Florida's Republican primary, despite repeatedly denouncing the practice as corrupt and pushing to restrict its use.

The White House said there was no contradiction because Trump was away from his home state.

Z.Phillips--SFF