San Francisco Frontiers - President's economic record on the line as Zambia votes

Long regarded as one of Africa's more stable democracies, the country has come under scrutiny over concerns that Hichilema's government has narrowed the space for dissent even as it promises stronger economic recovery.

The 64-year-old tycoon won a 2021 election on his sixth attempt and is betting on job creation and an ambitious infrastructure drive to secure a final five-year term.

His main challenger in a field of 13 other hopefuls is Brian Mundubile, a former minister in the Patriotic Front (PF) government that ruled from 2011 to 2021.

Backed by an alliance of opposition parties, Mundubile is running under the newly formed NRPUP which draws much of its political base from the former ruling party.

He entered the race in May, injecting uncertainty into a contest that had long appeared to be Hichilema's to lose.

The 55-year-old Mundubile told AFP on Wednesday that the government had tightened restrictions on his party's campaign and he did not see the election as being free and fair.

He said an opposition victory would begin with "a national reset" and reconciliation in a country he described as deeply divided. "There's very little development you can do with a divided country," he said.

- 'Hand-to-mouth' -

For voters, the sharper question is whether Hichilema's reforms have improved their daily lives.

More than 70 percent of Zambia's 22 million people live on less than three dollars a day, according to World Bank data.

While inflation fell to 6.8 percent in April and the kwacha currency has strengthened, many still face high food and energy costs. The unemployment rate is around 10 percent.

Africa's second-largest copper producer, Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020.

Since then, the government has secured a debt restructuring, completed an IMF-supported programme and set an ambitious 2031 target to triple production of copper, crucial to the green-energy transition.

"It's only those who are connected to politicians that are saying the economy is doing well," 32-year-old bus driver Ceshas Tembo told AFP, still undecided over which candidate to back.

"For many of us, it is still hand-to-mouth and even then it's never enough."

As police pledged extra security on voting day, the government announced Wednesday the arrests of several people, including three former senior government officials and a Kenyan national, over an alleged plot to interfere with the electoral system.

- 'Predictable leader' -

Up to 8.7 million voters are registered, with polling stations opening at 6:00 am (0400 GMT) and closing 12 hours later.

Voters will also elect 226 parliament seats, up from the previous 156.

Voting has traditionally followed regional lines, with Hichilema's party strongest in the south and west, and the PF retaining pockets of support in the north and Copperbelt.

While this year's vote has been "surprisingly competitive", voters were likely to stick with the stability of Hichilema, said Patience Mususa, senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute.

"Despite criticism of his slow progress in addressing government inefficiencies and corruption, and concerns about his prioritisation of corporate interests, he is seen as a more predictable leader," she said.

Results of the presidential vote are expected by August 17. The winner needs more than 50 percent to avoid a runoff.

Zambia has a long record of transferring power through the ballot box, with every change of president since the return to multiparty politics in 1991 achieved through elections.

H.Reyes--SFF