San Francisco Frontiers - Labour rival eyes win in poll key to UK PM's fate

All eyes are on Labour veteran and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham seeking to win the parliamentary by-election for the Makerfield constituency in northwestern England, so he can then try to oust Starmer as party leader and win the keys to Downing Street.

Polling stations opened at 7:00 am (0600 GMT). They will close at 10:00 pm, with counting due to begin straight away.

Pollsters expect Burnham to win the landmark contest, but he faces a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party.

"Almost undoubtedly it's in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister," said political scientist John Curtice.

"If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being," he told AFP.

Starmer, in office since July 2024, has been clinging to power since Labour's drubbing in local and regional elections last month.

He has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington.

He has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.

But Starmer, 63, an ex-lawyer who has refused to quit, insists his landslide election victory over the Conservatives in July 2024 gave him a five-year mandate to govern.

- 'King of the North' -

Amid growing impatience within the centre-left Labour party, Labour MP Josh Simons stood down so Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.

While Makerfield's 76,000 electorate typically votes Labour, Simons won a majority of only around 5,300 in 2024.

Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the predominantly white, working-class area during last month's council polls.

But the personal popularity of Burnham -- a three-term mayor of Greater Manchester nicknamed the "King of the North" -- is likely to see him triumph over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, polls predict.

"In Makerfield today it's very simple: you vote for Rob Kenyon, for Reform, and we are going to put a stop to this (small boats) or you vote for open borders with Andy Burnham," said Farage in a post on X.

Local plumber Kenyon has however also been dogged by past offensive remarks about women, while the fringe Restore Britain party is expected to split the hard-right vote.

In Ashton-in-Makerfield, Hazel Ellis, 61, told AFP she planned to vote for Reform.

"I'm willing to give them a go because this is the last hope for Britain now," she said.

- 'Stepping stone' -

Pensioner Frank Hesketh, 72, told AFP outside a polling station that Burnham was taking advantage of local people by using the by-election as a vehicle for his ambition to become prime minister.

"It's a stepping stone for the guy. We'll never see him around here again," he said.

Burnham, who polls show is Labour's most popular politician, hails from the party's so-called soft-left wing and has been an outspoken critic of Starmer's more-centrist rule.

There was clapping and cheering as he met Thursday with supporters outside his campaign headquarters in Makerfield.

Kamran Shirpor, a 49-year-old taxi driver, told AFP in Ashton-in-Makerfield, that Burnham is "a very popular guy around here".

"He tries to help people. I like him and think he'd be a good prime minister."

Under Labour party rules, leadership candidates must be an MP, which Burnham was between 2001 and 2017.

If he wins Thursday he would easily muster the support of 81 of Labour's 400-plus MPs needed to launch a contest, which Starmer has vowed to fight.

But Burnham allies are hopeful Starmer's top team could persuade him to step down instead, avoiding a fight.

Ex-health minister Wes Streeting, also manoeuvring for the top job, said Tuesday Starmer should be given "space over the weekend" to consider his future.

H.King--SFF