San Francisco Frontiers - Starmer's Labour rival eyes win in UK poll key to PM's fate

All eyes are on Labour veteran and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham seeking to win the parliamentary by-election for the Makerfield constituency in northwestern England, so he can then try to oust Starmer as party leader and win the keys to Downing Street.

Polling stations opened at 7:00 am (0600 GMT). They will close at 10:00 pm, with counting due to begin straight away.

Pollsters expect Burnham to win the landmark contest, but he faces a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party.

"Almost undoubtedly it's in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister," said political scientist John Curtice.

"If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being," he told AFP.

Starmer, in office since July 2024, has been clinging to power since Labour's drubbing in local and regional elections last month.

He has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington.

He has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.

But Starmer, 63, an ex-lawyer who has refused to quit, insists his landslide election victory over the Conservatives in July 2024 gave him a five-year mandate to govern.

- 'King of the North' -

Amid growing impatience within the centre-left Labour party, Labour MP Josh Simons stood down so Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.

While Makerfield's 76,000 electorate typically votes Labour, Simons won a majority of only around 5,300 in 2024.

Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the predominantly white, working-class area during last month's council polls.

But the personal popularity of Burnham -- a three-term mayor of Greater Manchester nicknamed the "King of the North" -- is likely to see him triumph over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, polls predict.

"In Makerfield today it's, very simple: you vote for Rob Kenyon, for Reform, and we are going to put a stop to this (small boats) or you vote for open borders with Andy Burnham," said Farage in a post on X.

Local plumber Kenyon has however also been dogged by past offensive remarks about women, while the fringe Restore Britain party is expected to split the hard-right vote.

In Ashton-in-Makerfield, Hazel Ellis, 61, told AFP she planned to vote for Reform.

"I'm willing to give them a go because this is the last hope for Britain now," she said.

- Coronation? -

In nearby Bryn, 23-year-old Finn Knowles told AFP Burnham was "a better option" than Starmer.

Burnham, who polls show is Labour's most popular politician, hails from the party's so-called soft-left wing and has been an outspoken critic of Starmer's more-centrist rule.

Under Labour party rules, leadership candidates must be an MP, which Burnham was between 2001 and 2017.

He would easily muster the support of 81 of Labour's 400-plus MPs needed to launch a contest, which Starmer has vowed to fight.

Burnham allies are hopeful Starmer's top team could persuade him to agree to step down instead, avoiding a bitter fight.

If Burnham wins in Makerfield, it is unclear when he would make his move against Starmer, as there will also be tough fight to replace him as mayor.

Ex-health minister Wes Streeting, also manoeuvring for the top job, said Tuesday Starmer should be given "space over the weekend" to consider his future.

Streeting, from Labour's right wing, has vowed to challenge Starmer if Burnham loses.

That could see a left-wing figure like Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband joining any race, Labour's former policy director Andrew Fisher told a think-tank event this week.

The outcome of a "three-way contest is far less predictable," he said.

K.Gray--SFF