San Francisco Frontiers - EU moves Ukraine's membership bid forward, but long road ahead

Foreign ministers from the 27-nation bloc will formally kick off negotiations with Ukraine, and neighbouring Moldova, on aligning with a first "cluster" of EU laws.

Ukraine's progress was stuck for some two years as Hungary's nationalist leader Viktor Orban vetoed all progress, but his election defeat by rival Peter Magyar in April opened up the way.

EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos called it a "mega Monday" and said Ukraine and Moldova would be taking their biggest step forwards since they were formally made candidates to join in 2023.

"They have delivered and it was really time for us to do this," she said at a meeting in Luxembourg.

But despite the fanfare -- and Kyiv's pleas for quick progress four years after it applied for membership in the wake of Russia's invasion -- that doesn't mean the war-torn country is going to join the bloc any time soon.

In purely practical terms a mammoth workload still lies ahead to align Ukraine's laws, institutions, and standards with the EU's -- despite major strides already made by Kyiv, even as it battles Russia.

That involves negotiating through 35 "chapters" covering everything from the environment and agriculture to justice and security -- grouped into six "clusters".

But, as ever in the EU, the question is also deeply political and there are myriad points at which any member state who wants can slam the brakes on Kyiv.

"This is a long process. Ukraine is at war. It has organised crime issues to solve. It would be the third biggest country in the EU," a European diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"The prospect of Ukraine enlargement happening soon never was realistic."

Hungary's Magyar, for one, has pledged a referendum on Kyiv joining if Ukraine completes all the negotiations "within the next 10 to 15 years".

Beyond that there seems to be a broader willingness to temper Kyiv's ambitions -- and growing talk of possible alternatives.

- 'Associate' member? -

Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said that other countries reluctant on enlargement had been hiding behind Orban.

"Now Orban is gone, so quite many have come out from Orban's shadow, and let's see whether we have this unity about enlargement," he said.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in April that it was clear to everyone that the "immediate accession of Ukraine to the EU is, of course, not possible".

Merz has proposed making Ukraine an "associate member" of the EU without voting rights, while Kyiv goes through the lengthy process of joining fully.

That plan has drawn scepticism from Ukraine, which fears that any suggested interim solutions will see it stranded permanently in a halfway house.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted Ukraine's accession should be "complete -- with full rights".

But there is a broader push to shake up the EU's accession process as Ukraine, Moldova and other hopefuls knock on the door.

Six countries including Germany and France have urged the bloc to discuss limiting voting rights on key issues for new members, and tightening rule-of-law safeguards.

Western Balkan duo Montenegro and Albania are the closest candidates in line to join, and a raft of new members could make the EU ungovernable.

For Ukraine and its supporters, admitting Kyiv is of fundamental interest to the bloc and the EU needs to send a clear signal on a timeline.

The opening of negotiations brought "significant political and moral support" to the country, Zelensky said Friday.

"Ukraine is doing what is necessary, and it is important that the EU is also keeping its word," he wrote on social media.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said he wants the bloc to prepare itself to accept Ukraine by 2030 -- if it completes the process by then.

"This is something that is on us, on the EU to decide, and this is the right time to do it, right now," he said.

R.Baker--SFF