San Francisco Frontiers - Chancellor swap? Rumours swirl about German leader Merz's future

Speculation reached fever pitch this week of manoeuvring within the centre-right CDU party to potentially replace Merz, Germany's most unpopular modern-day chancellor, after just a year in office.

Dubbing the saga the "chancellor swap" debate, German media have reported the name of Hendrik Wuest -- the state premier of North Rhein-Westphalia -- is circulating as a possible alternative.

Most commentators don't believe Merz will be dumped any time soon.

But the drama underscores how unstable once-staid German politics has become, coming less than two years since former chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapsed, precipitating early elections.

Addressing a regular press conference in Berlin on Friday, Merz's spokesman was however quick to dismiss the reports.

"You were right to call this a rumour, to speak of speculation -- and that's why I won't comment on it," a tense-looking Stefan Kornelius responded to a journalist's question.

"The mood in the chancellery is very good and constructive," he insisted, adding the government was focused on its reform plans and that people should "avoid side debates".

- 'Playing with fire' -

In briefings to local media, government sources have been more critical, labelling the rumours "wild speculation" -- in German, "wueste Spekulation", a word play seen as a veiled dig at Merz's potential challenger, Wuest.

It shows a "a dangerous desire to play with fire" that endangers stability in Germany, one government source charged.

The turmoil comes with 70-year-old Merz's government facing criticism on all fronts.

A promised spending blitz to boost the struggling economy has moved slowly, while much-needed reforms to healthcare and pensions are bogged down as the CDU squabbles with its coalition partners, the centre-left SPD.

Merz's poll ratings have plummeted -- a survey this week by Forsa showed only 14 percent were satisfied with him, against 84 percent who were dissatisfied.

"They've now had over a year to get policies off the ground, and in the major areas... not a great deal has happened yet," Aiko Wagner, a political scientist at the Freie Universitaet Berlin, told AFP.

Merz has also failed so far to neutralise the growing threat of far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which consistently tops opinion polls ahead of his CDU/CSU conservative bloc.

- Mounting pressure -

Wuest, aged 50, is from the more centrist wing of the CDU, aligned with former chancellor Angela Merkel, Merz's long-time bitter political rival.

The leader of Germany's most populous state has not directly commented on the rumours.

But when asked whether he wanted to be a substitute for Merz, he reportedly responded only that he was "not a good football player", without issuing a firm denial.

He has also been trying to boost his profile; he recently made an official trip to Poland, inviting along political journalists based in Berlin.

It is possible for a German chancellor to exit before the end of his term, including by resigning or facing a vote of no confidence, but the process is difficult and this seems unlikely for now.

Wuest, little known at the national level, may also struggle to take on Merz.

"With someone from state-level politics who has never been active in federal politics before, there is naturally still some uncertainty as to how far he can gain popularity nationwide," Peter Matuschek, a political analyst from pollster Forsa, told AFP.

But pressure is set to mount on Merz, particularly when key state elections take place in September in eastern regions that are AfD strongholds.

"Things could get tricky for the chancellor if reform projects continue to stall and the AfD triumphs in the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania," said the Bild daily.

J.Martinez--SFF