San Francisco Frontiers - Trump flexes muscle in Texas Senate runoff

The race is expected to be the latest demonstration of Trump's sway over Republican nominating contests, even as his grip on Congress has begun to loosen amid frustration over the Iran war, his White House ballroom project and a compensation fund for his allies.

Cornyn, a four-term senator and former Republican whip, began the year as the establishment favorite. But Trump's late endorsement of Paxton transformed the race, giving the Texas attorney general a major boost just days before the runoff.

The contest once again exposes the central tension facing Republicans in the midterm election cycle: a Trump endorsement can be decisive in a primary, but the president often favors hard-right candidates whom party strategists fear could prove weaker in November.

Paxton, a combative Trump ally, has survived years of legal, ethical and personal scandal, including a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-led Texas House, allegations of bribery and misconduct and a messy divorce.

The 63-year-old was acquitted by the Texas Senate after his impeachment trial and has long cast the allegations against him as politically motivated.

Cornyn, by contrast, is a straight-laced institutional conservative who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002 and built deep ties with the state's donor class and Republican leadership in Washington.

Trump praised Paxton in a weekend Truth Social post as a loyal fighter and "great attorney general," saying he had stood with "your favorite President, ME" -- and called Cornyn "VERY disloyal," complaining that he hadn't fought hard enough for the president's priorities.

Cornyn, a 74-year-old former judge who won the first round of voting in March but failed to secure a majority, has argued that Paxton could endanger what should be a safe Republican seat in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1988.

- Anger in Senate -

He has highlighted Paxton's controversies in scathing ads, warning that Democrats and the national media would make the attorney general's scandals the defining issue of the November vote.

But Paxton has surged since Trump's endorsement, and Decision Desk HQ's polling average showed his lead widening to 13 points before polls opened.

If Cornyn falls, he would join a growing list of Republicans punished after falling out of step with Trump.

Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy lost his primary after voting to convict Trump following his impeachment over the 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, one of the president's most persistent Republican critics, was defeated by a Trump-backed challenger. Trump allies also routed Indiana state lawmakers who resisted his redistricting demands.

The Texas endorsement has angered many Senate Republicans, who had urged Trump to support Cornyn and now worry that Paxton could force the party to spend heavily defending a seat that should not normally be competitive.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned last week that taking on incumbent senators can have consequences, saying Trump's interventions could make advancing his agenda "more complicated."

That concern has already begun playing out on Capitol Hill, where some Republicans have broken with Trump over Iran war powers, proposed funding for his White House ballroom, and his "anti-weaponization" fund.

The winner of Tuesday's runoff will face Democrat James Talarico, a state representative and rising national figure who has raised large sums and argues that both Republicans represent a broken political system tilted toward wealthy donors.

Republicans still start as favorites in Texas, which Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024. But Democrats see Paxton as the riskier nominee and believe his baggage could help them make a serious play for a statewide breakthrough.

C.Lewis--SFF