San Francisco Frontiers - India seeks trade, energy stability on UAE-Europe tour

Disruptions around Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive volatility in oil and gas markets, increasing pressure on energy-importing economies, including India.

But the trip also reflects India's wider effort to diversify economic and strategic partnerships -- while positioning itself as a major manufacturing and technology hub.

The six-day trip, which will include visits to the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy, comes after India and the European Union sealed a free trade agreement in January, dubbed by Modi as the "mother of all deals".

The EU has long eyed India -- the world's most populous nation -- as a key market.

Modi's visit will "deepen India's partnership with Europe... particularly trade and investment ties in light of the recently concluded India-EU FTA", New Delhi's foreign ministry said.

Modi is also attending a Nordic summit in Oslo on his first visit to Norway -- and the first by an Indian prime minister in 43 years -- which commentators said shows growing engagement with Northern Europe.

"For India, an engagement with the Nordic countries is strategically timed to position the country as a trusted economic, technological and clean energy partner in a rapidly changing global order," Anil Wadhwa, a retired Indian ambassador including to Italy and Poland, told AFP.

"India stands to benefit from the diversification from China, and the recently concluded India-EU free trade agreement has already created momentum," he added.

- 'Energy security' -

The whirlwind tour begins in the UAE, home to a 4.5 million-strong Indian community.

The Gulf region remains India's primary source of oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports, and discussions will "focus on strengthening our energy security," New Delhi's foreign ministry said, ahead of the visit.

But the visit is also about shoring up India's position in the wider Gulf in the wake of Middle East conflict.

"A new international environment now prevails," K.C. Singh, former Indian ambassador to Iran and UAE, told AFP.

"Cracks within the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and open Iran-UAE confrontation have altered the geopolitics," he added.

"The United Arab Emirates is now openly aligning with the US and Israel. Saudi Arabia, the GCC's most powerful and populous member, has moved closer to Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey while maintaining its US outreach."

India, the world's third-largest oil buyer, normally sources about half of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has been repeatedly blocked since war began.

"Agreements on LPG supplies and strategic petroleum reserves are the likely outcomes, providing India greater insulation from sudden price spikes and shipping disruptions," Wadhwa said.

"India's priority... should be to move from a conventional buyer-seller energy relationship, to a broader strategic energy security partnership".

- 'Unsettled global norms' -

Modi then travels to the Netherlands later on Friday, his second visit since 2017, with discussions including increasing its $27.8 billion (23.7 billion euros) bilateral trade last year, as well as on defence, semiconductors, water, agriculture and health.

Modi heads to Sweden on Sunday, where he will address a European business leaders forum alongside EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, before heading to Norway a day later to address an India-Nordic Summit.

"The Northern Lights may be distant from the tropics, but the horizons we seek are increasingly one and the same," Indian lawmaker Shashi Tharoor wrote, in the Indian Express daily.

"At a time when the turbulence of the Trumpian era has unsettled global norms, India and the Nordic countries share a common interest in defending world order and stability."

India, which operates an Arctic research base on Norway's Svalbard island, is also tracking what the opening of sea ice routes driven by climate change means for its shipping.

"India's interest in the Arctic is not merely academic, the melting of polar ice has direct consequences for the Indian monsoon and our food security," Tharoor added.

The final leg will be Italy on May 19, where Modi will meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni -- with whom he has a close friendship.

K.Gray--SFF