San Francisco Frontiers - India's Modi eyes win in opposition-held West Bengal

And in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, veteran politician MK Stalin was trailing, challenged by a political debutante -- film star C. Joseph Vijay.

Elections in five states and territories took place in April and May, with Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party in the national parliament, seeking to make inroads into opposition-held states.

In West Bengal, the Hindu-nationalist BJP waged an aggressive bid to dislodge Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand leader of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), in power in the state of 100 million people since 2011.

Trends released by the Election Commission of India on Monday showed BJP leading in 176 out of 294 seats in West Bengal.

"The entire country has its eyes on this state's election results," political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty told AFP, in the capital Kolkata. "The contest can tilt the balance of power."

The campaign this time was marked by protests over the removal of millions of names from voter rolls, billed as removing ineligible voters, but which critics said was skewed against marginalised and minority communities.

Banerjee, speaking ahead of the count, insisted her party would win.

"The BJP is not coming, take my word for it," she said. "Be patient till the last."

But West Bengal's BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya told AFP he was confident of a win.

"It was an election of rejection," he said. "People of the state want change. The ruling Trinamool Congress will be defeated."

Past elections have resulted in violence in the state, where BJP has never been in power.

- 'Political earthquake' -

In Tamil Nadu, a key industrial hub with more than 80 million people, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) under Chief Minister MK Stalin was trailing, according to early Election Commission trends.

Stalin is being challenged by C. Joseph Vijay, 51, one of India's most bankable actors, especially in Tamil regions.

The political debutante launched his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party in 2024.

Election Commission trends showed Vijay's TVK leading, a surprise result in the state where exit polls suggested Stalin's DMK would return to power.

Votes are also being counted in Assam, a northeastern state of more than 31 million which the BJP is widely expected to maintain control of, and the small coastal territory of Puducherry, where the BJP is part of a ruling coalition.

In Kerala, the tightly contested race in the southern state of approximately 36 million, trends suggest the Congress party-led alliance will oust the Communist party.

Wins in the state elections would put Modi on a stronger footing while battling a series of economic and foreign policy challenges, including high unemployment rate and a pending US trade deal.

Omar Abdullah, chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, said a win for BJP in West Bengal and the TVK in Tamil Nadu would be nothing short of a "political earthquake".

"The aftershocks of these results will be felt far and wide for a long time," he said on social media, "probably all the way" to the 2029 general elections.

L.Lopez--SFF