San Francisco Frontiers - Trump looks for way out on war, but Iran may not oblige

Trump has insisted on maintaining a naval blockade, which Iran is demanding must end before it can consider any agreement to end the conflict launched on February 28 by Israel and the United States.

For Trump, who boasts of his prowess to secure big deals quickly through his team of business buddies, negotiating with Iran's Islamic republic presents an ultimate contrast -- methodical, unyielding diplomats ready to fight for the long haul against what they see as a deceitful enemy.

Trump had raised hopes of progress at a second round of talks in Pakistan, with Vice President JD Vance designated to fly out, but Iran refused to confirm its attendance and Vance stayed home.

With a two-week ceasefire set to end, and Gulf Arab allies of the United States bracing for potential new Iranian strikes, Trump said he was extending the ceasefire because Iran's leadership, decimated by the war, was "fractured" and needed time to come up with a proposal.

"He really could have doubled down and engaged in more reckless military action. But so far he has stopped digging himself into a deeper hole," said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who studies Iran.

For Trump, who campaigned on promises to shun military interventionism, the war has proven politically disastrous, facing opposition from even his Republican base.

Iran responded to being attacked by exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway for one-fifth of the world's oil, making American consumers pay more at the pump months before congressional elections.

- Seeking to exhaust all options -

Despite suffering losses, Iran's clerical state is not on the verge of collapsing and will not surrender, said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence expert on Iran now at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies and the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

Trump "does not want escalation. I am not saying there is not going to be one, but he is trying to really exhaust any political option," he said.

"I think Trump is fed up with this war and more than that he understands, despite what he is saying, that the price is only going to intensify. It's not going to decrease," Citrinowicz said.

But Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump, whose negotiators were discussing a deal with them days before the United States and Israel attacked -- a pattern also seen last June, with the two sides talking just before an Israeli bombing campaign then.

Both Trump and Iran's ruling clerics are sensitive to any suggestion of backing down.

In declaring the naval blockade during the ceasefire, Trump had forced Iran to respond, undermining his own diplomacy "for the sake of optics and looking strong," Vatanka said.

In one potential off-ramp, Vatanka said that the United States could maintain the blockade but not enforce it rigorously.

"The Iranians would know if it's not being enforced because that is easy to measure," Vatanka said.

Iran could call it a win but if they insist on a full opening, "that tells me they're more interested in the optics than actually getting a deal. It would be a mistake on their part," Vatanka said.

- How big a blockade? -

Trump has not indicated any let-up on the blockade so far. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican who long advocated for striking Iran, indicated the blockade could now serve as the key US means of pressure.

Graham wrote on X that he had concluded after speaking with Trump on Wednesday that "the blockade will be growing and that it could become global soon."

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the progressive Center for International Policy, said Trump had a choice on the blockade -- lifting it, which would reinforce to Iran how much leverage it had gained, or keeping it and risking ending the ceasefire.

"The prevailing view in Tehran is that time is on its side and that a prolonged conflict would impose mounting costs on the US and the global economy," he said.

G.Miller--SFF