San Francisco Frontiers - Democrats eye Virginia gains in war with Trump over US voting map

The battle over "gerrymandering" -- the long-established but widely criticized US practice of drawing electoral boundaries to benefit one party -- has become one of the defining fights of the campaign for November's midterm elections.

The ballot measure would temporarily let Virginia redraw its congressional map before the next scheduled nationwide redistricting in 2030, giving Democrats a strong advantage in 10 of the state's 11 House districts, up from their current 6-5 edge.

With control of the House on a knife edge, the vote could help determine whether Trump finishes his term with a compliant Republican Congress or a Democratic chamber empowered to block his agenda and investigate his administration.

Redistricting usually follows the national census every 10 years, but Trump last year urged Republican-led states to redraw maps mid-decade to protect the party's fragile House majority.

That triggered a tit-for-tat contest as both parties raced to squeeze out extra seats before November.

Texas moved first, adopting a map that could add up to five Republican seats. California answered with a ballot measure designed to give Democrats five of their own.

Virginia is now one of Democrats' last major chances to gain ground through redistricting before voters decide control of Congress.

Democratic groups have poured money into the state, making the referendum one of the most expensive redistricting fights in US history.

The main campaigns on both sides have raised nearly $100 million, much of it from "dark money" groups -- nonprofit organizations that can spend heavily on politics without publicly disclosing their donors.

- 'Unfair advantage' -

The pro-redistricting campaign, Virginians for Fair Elections, has raised the lion's share -- nearly $65 million, according to The Hill.

Former president Barack Obama, still one of the Democratic Party's most influential campaign voices, has urged Virginians to vote yes.

"By voting yes, you can push back against the Republicans trying to give themselves an unfair advantage in the midterms... And we're counting on you," he said in a video message.

Democrats argue that the Virginia map is a necessary counterweight to Trump's pressure campaign. Republicans call it a naked power grab in a politically mixed state where Trump took 46 percent of the vote in 2024.

US Congresswoman Jen Kiggans, a Virginia Republican whose district could be affected, told ABC News that forcing the measure through would "come back to bite" Democrats.

More than one million Virginians have already had their say, with early and absentee voting data cited by The Hill giving Democrats a sizable advantage.

But recent polling suggests supporters hold only a narrow edge, and University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato cautioned that the outcome was not guaranteed.

"To get 10 out of 11 seats is not easy, even with Virginia leaning more Democratic," he told AFP. "And of late... it hasn't been as Democratic as it had been previously."

A victory would boost House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has spearheaded efforts to neutralize Trump-backed maps in Republican states.

Defeat would be damaging, particularly for Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, whose approval ratings have dipped as she champions the plan.

The result will also shape the final phase of the national map fight. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is pushing a special session that could allow Republicans to gain as many as five seats, potentially wiping out any Democratic gains in Virginia.

N.Wilson--SFF