San Francisco Frontiers - Carney's Liberals win Canada majority

Carney's Liberals won the most seats in elections a year ago, but fell just short of a majority.

Canadians voted in three districts on Monday to fill vacated seats, and the Liberals easily won two Toronto areas where the party had dominated in recent votes.

The result remained uncertain in Quebec's Terrebonne district, where the Liberal candidate and Bloc Quebecois separatist were running close.

But the Toronto wins gave the Liberals full control of parliament, holding enough seats to ensure they do not need the speaker of the house -- a Liberal -- to break a tie.

Carney congratulated the new Liberal lawmakers -- Danielle Martin and Doly Begum -- on X, saying both would make Canada "stronger."

Carney has improved his party's fortunes since last year's election by sticking firmly to a message focused on President Donald Trump, arguing the US leader has upended the world order and Canada needs to take bold action in response.

He has announced massive increases in military spending -- insisting Canada can no longer rely on Washington for security -- and has travelled the globe seeking new trade deals in Asia and Europe.

Liberal poll numbers are higher than they were a year ago, and the party has pulled off a stunning set of defections from the opposition benches -- poaching four Conservatives and one left-wing New Democratic lawmaker into the Liberal caucus.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre charged on X Monday that the Liberals had won their majority through "backroom deals" and said the floor-crossers "betrayed the people who voted for them."

The by-election results give Carney Canada's first majority government since 2019, when the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals controlled parliament.

- 'Historic moment' -

Canadians have been rattled by Trump's return to power.

The president's tariffs in key sectors have forced job losses in Canada and slowed growth, even if the majority of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

Trump has threatened to annex Canada and mocked both Carney and Trudeau as the "governor" of a US state.

For University of Ottawa political scientist Genevieve Tellier, Carney has built momentum by "emphasizing the historic moment we are living through."

"We've rarely seen popularity ratings this high one year after coming to power," she told AFP, saying Carney was working to build "a broad national coalition" to respond to the unprecedented geopolitical moment.

- 'Sovereign nation' -

On a warm afternoon in central Toronto, Jeyaram Duraisingam told AFP he volunteered for the Liberal campaign partly because he's impressed by the local candidate, Danielle Martin.

But he also praised Carney for asserting that Canada is "a sovereign nation" in response to Trump's taunts.

"He's willing to go out there and connect with Europe, connect with different countries and make those relationships stronger. I think that matters," he said.

The Liberals remain a political juggernaut but hints of vulnerability are starting to emerge.

The Angus Reid Institute found last month that "concerns over the high cost of living are higher than they have been in recent memory for lower-income Canadians."

Grocery prices are up more than 20 percent since 2022 and unemployment is at 6.7 percent.

Opposition parties are arguing Carney's soaring rhetoric about economic transformation has failed to make lives more affordable for Canadians.

"We will continue to fight for people to afford homes, food and fuel," Poilievre said after Monday's votes.

F.Edwards--SFF