San Francisco Frontiers - Russian tanker heads to Cuba despite US oil blockade

The Anatoly Kolodkin, which is carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, was off the eastern tip of Cuba on Sunday, according to shipping tracker MarineTraffic.

The tanker, traveling at 12 knots, is now scheduled to arrive at the western port of Matanzas on Tuesday. It was previously forecast to arrive Monday.

It would be the first shipment of oil to the island since January, bringing some temporary relief to a country of 9.6 million people that has endured a deepening energy and economic crisis.

Communist-ruled Cuba lost its main regional ally and oil supplier in January when US forces captured Venezuela's socialist leader Nicolas Maduro.

US President Donald Trump subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to Cuba and has mused about "taking" the island.

He renewed his threats on Friday, saying "Cuba is next" at an investment forum in Miami.

Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuba's energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, said he was surprised the United States did not try to intercept the Russian tanker before it approached Cuba.

"I think now the chances that the United States will try to stop her have basically disappeared," Pinon told AFP.

Once the boat enters Cuban waters, he said, it "is almost impossible for the US government to stop it."

The New York Times, citing an unnamed US official briefed on the matter, said the US Coast Guard was allowing the tanker to reach Cuba.

The US Coast Guard did not reply to an AFP request for comment.

- Daily outages -

After Washington launched the oil blockade, President Miguel Diaz-Canel imposed emergency measures to conserve fuel, including strict rationing of gasoline.

He warned this month that "any external aggressor will encounter an unbreakable resistance."

Fuel prices have soared, public transport has dwindled and some airlines have suspended flights to Cuba, hitting the country's fragile economy.

Cubans have endured regular outages as its aging power plants struggle to meet demand, with seven nationwide blackouts since 2024, including two this month and sparking rare protests.

A humanitarian aid convoy brought more than 50 tonnes of medicine, food, solar panels and other goods to Cuba by air and sea in the past week, with two sailboats bringing the last shipments from Mexico on Saturday.

The Anatoly Kolodkin, which is under US sanctions, left the Russian port of Primorsk on March 8.

It was escorted by a Russian navy ship across the English Channel, but the two vessels parted ways when the tanker entered the Atlantic, according to the British Royal Navy.

Another ship that was reportedly carrying Russian diesel to Cuba, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, arrived in Venezuela instead earlier this week.

- Diesel an 'urgent need' -

Once the Anatoly Kolodkin's crude arrives in Cuba, it would take about 15-20 days to process the oil and another 5-10 days to deliver its refined products, Pinon said.

"The urgent need today in Cuba is diesel," the former oil executive said.

The Russian shipment could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough to cover the country's demand for around 12.5 days, according to Pinon.

Pinon said the government would have to decide whether to use the fuel for backup power generators or for the buses, tractors and trains needed to keep the economy going for two weeks.

"If you are Diaz-Canel or somebody making the decision, you go, 'OK, where where do I go with that diesel'?" he said.

"Do I want to generate more electricity so there are less apagones (blackouts)? Or do I want to put it in the transportation sector?"

I.Rodriguez--SFF