San Francisco Frontiers - France turns to 2027 race to succeed Macron

As voters prepare to choose a successor to the centrist president bowing out after his maximum two terms, here is the state of play.

- The divided left -

It is unclear how many presidential candidates the left will field next year, after the local elections that ended on Sunday.

The municipal vote has highlighted a widening rift between the mainstream left and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), following the fatal beating of a far-right activist last month blamed on fringe leftists.

LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, 74, is expected to launch another presidential bid, though he has not yet officially announced his candidacy.

A primary to elect another leftist candidate was supposed to be held on October 11, but is struggling to gain traction.

Former Socialist president Francois Hollande and Raphael Glucksmann, a centre-left member of the European Parliament, have both expressed opposition to it.

Glucksmann, 46, appears to be a frontrunner for the left in opinion polls -- though, a year from the election, such projections remain preliminary.

Communist Fabien Roussel, a 56-year-old who opposes a primary, is also expected to enter the race.

Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure, a 57-year-old who has argued for the need to unite against the right, is expected to prepare his own candidacy but has yet to declare his intention to run.

The leader of the Greens, 39-year-old Marine Tondelier, has said she will take part in the primary along with two former LFI lawmakers.

- Centre seeks successor -

The presidential camp is shifting its focus to the post-Macron era, though no clear successor has yet emerged.

Two former prime ministers, Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, are viewed as the most likely contenders.

Philippe, 55, has said he will run and bolstered his bid by retaining his seat as mayor of the northern port city of Le Havre.

Attal, 37, has yet to officially declare his candidacy.

- The right's turning point -

The 2027 election is seen as a crossroads for the traditional right, as the party weighs a move toward the centre or a further shift to the right.

Bruno Retailleau, the Republicans party leader and former interior minister, announced his presidential candidacy in February.

But influential voices within the conservative party are calling for a primary, with a meeting scheduled for Tuesday to discuss how to select its 2027 nominee.

Former premier and moderate right-winger Dominique de Villepin, 72, could upset the balance by entering the race, buoyed by his popularity ratings.

- Le Pen's fate in the balance -

Marine Le Pen's ascendant National Rally (RN) views next year's contest as its strongest opportunity yet to take power.

But her future as a candidate hinges on a verdict on July 7, when an appeals court will rule on a graft case.

The ruling could result in the 57-year-old being banned from public office, upending her run for president for a fourth time.

If the sentence is upheld, 30-year-old RN party leader Jordan Bardella is expected to run next year instead.

But limited gains for the far-right RN in the municipal elections suggest the 2027 race remains open, despite opinion polls favouring the party.

Eric Zemmour, the leader of the smaller far-right party Reconquete, could also say he is running

E.Jones--SFF