San Francisco Frontiers - Trump announces 'very good' Iran talks, shelving power plant strikes

The stunning about-turn came ahead of a Monday night ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane -- or see Trump "obliterate" its power plants.

With observers scrambling to interpret the latest statements from the US leader, oil prices fell and stocks markets jumped, even though Iran denied that any talks were underway.

The Axios newsite, citing an unnamed Israeli official, named Trump's interlocutor as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's speaker of parliament, who is one of the most prominent non-clerical figures in Tehran.

But Ghalibaf said "no negotiations" were underway in a post on X, adding that the announcement was intended "to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei indicated that messages had been received from "some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war," according to the official IRNA news agency.

Although Oman mediated indirect US-Iran talks in the month before the US and Israel launched the war, other countries have been mooted as possible go-betweens, including Egypt, Qatar or Pakistan.

- 'Blinked first' -

On a day of whiplash announcements, Iran's neighbors breathed a sigh of relief after Trump stepped back from the brink over his threat to target Iranian power infrastructure.

Tehran had threatened to deploy naval mines in the Gulf and target power plants and water infrastructure across the region in retaliation -- threatening to ramp up an energy crisis of already historic proportions.

"Trump blinked first -- out of a clear understanding that striking Iran's energy infrastructure would trigger a direct and significant retaliation," Danny Citrinowicz, a security analyst and former Iran expert for Israeli military intelligence, wrote on X.

The US leader said his administration was holding talks with an unidentified "top person", but not the country's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who is believed to be injured.

"We've wiped out the leadership phase one, phase two, and largely phase three. But we're dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader," Trump told reporters in Florida.

He described the individual as "very reasonable," while warning that if the talks failed in the next five days, "we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out."

Thousands of US Marines are also headed to the Middle East, reinforcing the American presence there amid speculation at the weekend that Trump was mulling ground operations either to seize Iranian oil assets or to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

- Strikes -

Since the start of the war, Tehran has retaliated against US-Israeli attacks by throttling traffic through the Strait, conduit for a fifth of global crude, hitting Gulf energy sites and US embassies across the Gulf as well as targets in Israel.

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned overnight that, in the event of a protracted war, daily oil losses would put the world on track for a crisis worse than the combined impact of both the 1970s oil shocks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible," he told reporters during a visit to Australia.

Oil prices have been driven above $100 a barrel by the conflict -- and they tumbled sharply after Trump's announcements, while European stocks rebounded.

International benchmark Brent crude plunged around 10 percent to $101.00 per barrel, while the main US oil contract West Texas Intermediate shed around nine percent to $89.35 per barrel.

"I welcome the talks reported between the US and Iran," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a parliamentary committee, adding the UK was "aware" discussions were happening.

Trump said there were already "major points of agreement" with the Iranian negotiators.

US conditions, he said, included Iran abandoning any nuclear ambitions and giving up its enriched uranium stockpiles.

Since the start of the war on February 28, Trump has repeatedly stated his desire for regime change and openly raised the idea of installing a pro-Western figure from inside Iran's governing system.

- Lebanon ground campaign -

The US president has offered varying timelines and objectives for the war, saying Friday he was considering "winding down" the operation -- only to later threaten Iran's power plants, of which it has more than 90.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has yet to comment on Trump's announcement, has spoken of a long-term campaign against Iran's government, a sponsor of Hamas, which launched the October 7, 2023 attack that triggered the Gaza war.

In Lebanon, Israel has also expanded its ground campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah, warning of "weeks of fighting" there.

Israel's attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 1,000 people and displaced more than a million, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

In Iran, at least 3,230 people have been killed in the war, including 1,406 civilians, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. AFP is not able to access the sites of strikes nor independently verify tolls in Iran.

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P.Thomas--SFF