San Francisco Frontiers - Energy prices soar, Iran and US trade threats after Qatar gas hit

International benchmark Brent surged 10 percent before falling back while European gas rose 35 percent after Iran attacked Qatar's huge Ras Laffan LNG facility in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its South Pars gas field.

Trump, whose country started the war alongside Israel with their attack on Iran on February 28, said Washington did not know about the strike on South Pars.

But he warned the United States would itself "blow up" the Iranian gas field if Tehran did not stop attacking Qatar.

Iran's military responded Thursday with defiance, saying it had been a "major mistake" to hit South Pars, which supplies around 70 percent of the country's domestic natural gas.

"If it is repeated, subsequent attacks against your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until their complete destruction, and our response will be far more severe," operational command Khatam Al-Anbiya said in a statement carried by Fars news agency.

- 'Lasting impact' -

Qatar is one of the world's top liquefied natural gas producers, alongside the United States, Australia and Russia, and its Ras Laffan facility is the world's largest LNG hub.

It has been repeatedly targeted by Iran since the war began, and state-run QatarEnergy said Thursday that two waves of Iranian strikes had caused "sizeable fires and extensive further damage" to several LNG facilities.

Energy prices had already spiralled since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of the world's oil and LNG, was brought to a near standstill by the threat of Iranian attacks.

But analysts said the targeting of energy production facilities, not just storage depots and transport, is on a different scale.

French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Thursday the "reckless escalation", warning that if Middle Eastern energy "production capacities themselves are destroyed, this war will have a much more lasting impact".

He called for "direct talks between the Americans and Iranians on this matter".

Theresa Fallon, director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies, said the economic effect of the gas hub attacks "will likely be felt for years".

Gulf nations had strongly criticised the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, which is part of the South Pars/North Dome megafield, the largest known gas reserve in the world that is shared with Qatar.

In a rare rebuke of the US and Israel, the United Arab Emirates said that targeting energy infrastructure poses a "direct threat to global energy security".

They also hit out at Iran's retaliation in a war that has spilled out across the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia said Thursday it reserved the "right to take military actions" if necessary after repeated missile and drone attacks from Iran.

The defence ministry said a drone crashed into the Samref refinery in the industrial zone of the Red Sea port of Yanbu, adding that damage assessment was underway.

Qatar meanwhile ordered Iran's military and security attaches along with their staff to leave the country.

Strikes were also reported Thursday on energy infrastructure in Kuwait, where two oil refineries were hit by drones.

- 'War of attrition' -

Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei earlier vowed retaliation for Israel's attack on its gas facilities.

"Every drop of spilled blood comes at a price, and the criminal murderers of these martyrs will soon have to pay it," read a message posted late Wednesday on Mojtaba Khamenei's official Telegram channel.

He has not been seen in public since he was appointed to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by the US and Israeli at the start of the war.

Israel this week also killed national security chief Ali Larijani and intelligence chief Esmail Khatib as part of a long-standing strategy to take out their enemies' leaders.

Yet Tehran is still unleashing attacks across the Middle East.

US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard told Congress the Iranian government remained "intact but largely degraded".

"The conflict is drifting into a war of attrition -- with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran," said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, on X.

- Thousands killed -

A US-based rights group has reported more than 3,000 people killed in Iran by the US-Israeli strikes, a figure that could not be independently verified.

In the Iranian capital on Thursday, there was little to suggest a country mired in war.

On the eve of Nowruz, the Persian New Year typically marked with celebrations, the city centre filled as usual with traffic jams and street vendors haggling over the price of clothing and fruit.

However, the security presence was even greater than usual, with heavily armed security forces visible on certain thoroughfares as well as an increased number of armoured vehicles.

In a post on social media, Trump late Wednesday said Israel had "violently lashed out" in "anger" in attacking the Iran gas hub.

He said that "no more attacks will be made by Israel" on South Pars unless Iran continues to attack Qatar, in which case the US "will massively blow up the entirety" of the field.

Citrinowicz said the attacks underscored gaps between Israel and Washington on how to proceed as the war drags on.

And they "underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become -- lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state".

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