San Francisco Frontiers - Four years after banning Russia, FIFA and IOC passive in the face of war

Both wars broke out immediately after the end of a Winter Olympics -- and before the start of the subsequent Paralympics and ahead of a summer World Cup.

Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine four days after the closing ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Winter Games. US and Israeli bombs started falling on Iran six days after the flags came down on the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics.

In 2022, it took four days for football's World and European governing bodies, FIFA and UEFA, with the support of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), to expel all Russian and Belarusian teams.

The IOC condemned "the violation of the Olympic Truce by the Russian government and by the Belarusian government that supports it".

This time, the IOC merely called for guarantees of "the safety of athletes" travelling to the Paralympics in Italy, particularly "those likely to be affected by the most recent conflicts".

FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafstrom said his body was "monitoring the situation".

"Some observers have noted how Russia was banned from FIFA competitions following its invasion of Ukraine, though no discussions appear to have taken place about similar action being taken against the US," said Simon Chadwick, a specialist in sports geopolitics at EMLyon business school.

There are differences between the wars.

Russia launched a land invasion with the conquest of territory among its stated goal. That has not been one of the justifications offered for the American/Israeli air attack.

- 'Blatant avoidance' -

While it would be hard to stage this summer's 48-team World Cup without the United States, one of the hosts, expelling Russia in 2022, ahead of a European qualifying playoff game against Poland, solved a problem.

Russia, the host of the 2018 World Cup finals, started European qualification but was then banned from the 2022 finals in Qatar as part of a long-running investigation into state sponsored doping. Expelling Russia allowed FIFA to avoid potential embarrassment.

This time, FIFA President Gianni Infantino -- normally highly visible on social media -- has refrained from comment.

"This is blatant avoidance," Pim Verschuuren, a specialist in sports management and geopolitics at the University of Rennes II in France, told AFP.

He said Infantino, and IOC chief Kirsty Coventry, were showing "pragmatism" in the face of political reality.

"In 2022, the political pressure was so intense that the IOC was forced to exclude the Russians," he said. "Today it can't afford to single out and antagonise the United States."

In addition to hosting the World Cup, the US will also host the next Olympics, in Los Angeles in 2028.

"There is a form of power monopoly in sports governance," Verschuuren said. "Sport is in the hands of the United States, with funding from its Gulf allies."

While the IOC is trying to maintain a distance from Washington, Infantino is nurturing a close relationship with the U.S. administration, creating a special "FIFA Peace Prize" for Donald Trump.

"This is beyond ridiculous," a source close to football's governing bodies told AFP. "But it's quite rational, because he wants his World Cup to go well."

- 'Beyond ridiculous' -

Iran trails only Russia as the world's most sanctioned country and the long-standing restrictions have left it economically isolated. Even though it has qualified, it could miss the World Cup.

"It is hard to see which countries might object to this," said Chadwick, adding it has "a sport industry so small that it is almost globally imperceptible. The removal of Iran from a commercial, economic and political perspective would be of little concern.

"The removal of an adversary would give Donald Trump and his government the arena in which to project the image and values that it wants to."

Iran's most powerful allies offer little help. Russia, whose athletes got to the fly their flag again at the Paralympics, is focusing on eroding its bans. China lacks influence in world football and has kept a low Olympic profile since the 2022 Games.

Verschuuren said the sports bodies are caught in the same trap as many countries and international organisations in the face of Trump's refusal to seek consensus.

"The very idea of multilateralism is collapsing, and sport is one dimension of this collapse. The IOC is completely out of touch, just as a UN agency would be," said Verschuuren.

H.Davis--SFF