San Francisco Frontiers - EU asylum applications down but Iran concerns mount

Turmoil in the Islamic republic risked upending a downward trend in requests for protection, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) said, in a report written before the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran.

"With a population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude," the EUAA said.

The prospect, which is likely to worry EU nations that have long worked to curb inbound migration, was discussed at an extraordinary meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers Sunday, according to diplomatic sources.

And the issue will be on the agenda as the EU's 27 interior ministers meet in Brussels on Thursday.

The European Commission said Monday it was "enhancing preparedness through closer monitoring" of the situation and reinforcing cooperation with relevant United Nations agencies and partner countries.

Asked for a fresh assessment as the Iran war spread across the region, the EUAA said it was "not in a position to comment on any impact the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East may have".

"The situation remains very fluid and it would be irresponsible to make any hypothetical or predictive statement," it said.

Its report said displacement of just 10 percent of Iran's population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades, albeit cautioning that the scenario remained "highly speculative".

- 'Flashpoint' -

Citing mass protests against Iran's clerical authorities and last year's US-Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, the agency described the country as a "potential flashpoint" in a highly volatile global environment.

"The decline in applications should therefore be interpreted with caution," it wrote.

Iran is among the world's top hosting countries for refugees, it noted.

The country is home to about 2.5 million refugees, mainly Afghan nationals, according to the UN refugee agency.

So far, Iranian displacement has remained limited, the EUAA said.

The country's nationals lodged only 8,000 asylum requests in the European Union plus Switzerland and Norway (EU+) in 2025, making them the 31st largest group of applicants, said the EUAA.

EU+ nations received around 822,000 asylum applications in 2025, down 19 percent on the previous year. That followed an 11-percent decrease in 2024.

The 2025 drop was largely driven by fewer applications by Syrians, Bangladeshis and Turks, the agency said.

Afghans accounted for the most requests, filing 117,000 applications -- a 33-percent increase on the previous year -- followed by Venezuelans, with 91,000.

Q.Nelson--SFF