San Francisco Frontiers - Family matters: Thaksin's party down, maybe not out

Pheu Thai, the latest incarnation of the organisation founded by telecom billionaire Thaksin, came a distant third in Sunday's vote, according to preliminary election commission figures.

Its vote share in the party-list section of the election plunged by more than half, they showed.

Multiple factors combined to undermine it, analysts say -- the conviction of its founder for corruption, his daughter Paetongtarn's mishandling of the border conflict with Cambodia, and not least the domination of the party by its founding family.

The Shinawatras have produced no fewer than four Thai prime ministers this century, and Pheu Thai's latest nominee for the position, biomedical engineering professor Yodchanan Wongsawat, was Thaksin's nephew.

Bangkok retiree Pipat Saeteaw, 72, used to be a staunch supporter of Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras, but no longer.

"I liked Thaksin. I really liked his government's 30-baht universal healthcare scheme that I still use today," he told AFP Monday.

"But why did Thaksin flee and not return to face legal punishment? Now he brings his child and nephew into politics. I don't agree with that.

"I don't vote for the Pheu Thai party anymore."

The party was devastated in Thaksin's home province of Chiang Mai, one of its traditional strongholds, where for the first time ever it lost every constituency, party officials acknowledged.

It is a remarkable fall from electoral grace after Thaksin broke the mould of Thai politics in the 2000s -- the first prime minister to serve a full term, the first to be re-elected at the ballot box, and the first to win an overall majority.

Yodchanan did not attend a press conference at his party's headquarters late Sunday where the party leader conceded defeat.

"It's the voice of the people we have to respect. So we accept the result," Julapun Amornvivat told reporters.

Some are asking whether this could mark the end of the long-standing Shinawatra dynasty -- but Pheu Thai may yet end up as part of the ruling coalition, which would give it a chance at a political comeback.

"For the next few years, Thaksin is done," Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told AFP.

But he cautioned: "Nothing is ever 'over' in Thailand."

Economic growth in the Southeast Asian nation is anaemic and there could still be an opportunity for Pheu Thai in future "if the economy continues to go downhill", Chambers said.

- 'Real survivor' -

Thaksin was first elected premier in 2001 on the back of populist promises of prosperity for the rural poor.

Within a few years, he helped revive Thailand's dwindling economy following the 1997 financial crisis in Asia.

But he was later ousted by a military coup and fled the country, only returning to Thailand in 2023 as his party formed a government, later headed by Paetongtarn.

She was removed from office by court order last year after she referred to former Cambodian leader Hun Sun as "uncle" in a leaked phone conversation and called a Thai military commander her "opponent", triggering outrage.

She was replaced by Anutin Charnvirakul, whose Bhumjaithai party won a stunning victory at the weekend's polls.

He has various options to form a coalition, including with Pheu Thai, but analysts at BMI, of Fitch Solutions, said that combination was now less likely.

"A partnership would likely prove unstable given their open hostilities in the past," BMI said in an outlook note.

Before the vote, some observers predicted that alongside a political agreement, Thaksin could be released earlier than scheduled from his one-year prison term for corruption in office.

But Punchada Sirivunnabood, political science professor at Mahidol University, pointed out that Thaksin was eligible for parole as soon as May regardless of any deal.

"I don't think it's the end for the Shinawatras," she said.

"I don't think he will just get out of politics -- he is a real survivor."

Q.Taylor--SFF