San Francisco Frontiers - Takaichi wins big in Japan election, media projections show

Capitalising on her popularity since taking office in October, Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) regained a strong majority in the lower house, according to media estimates.

Broadcaster NHK reported that the LDP may have romped home with between 274 and 328 seats in the 465-member lower house, well above its current tally of 198 seats.

Together with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the ruling bloc was projected to win between 302 and 366 seats, NHK said.

Winning 310 seats or more would give the ruling bloc a two-thirds majority for the first time since elections in 2017 under Takaichi's mentor, late ex-premier Shinzo Abe.

Takaichi has injected new life into the LDP, which has governed Japan almost non-stop for decades but which has shed support in recent elections because of unhappiness about rising prices and corruption.

Last year under her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba, the ruling bloc lost its majority in the upper house, and in 2024 the LDP lost its majority in the lower chamber.

Takaichi, 64, was a heavy metal drummer in her youth, an admirer of Britain's "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher, and on the ultra-conservative fringe of the LDP when she became leader in October.

She has defied pessimists to be a hit with voters, especially young ones, with fans lapping up everything from her handbag to her jamming to a K-pop song with South Korea's president.

But she will have to deliver on the economy.

"With prices rising like this, what matters most to me is what policies they'll adopt to deal with inflation," Chika Sakamoto, 50, told AFP at a voting station in a snowy Tokyo on Sunday.

"Prices for just about everything are really going up, but incomes aren't rising much, so our disposable income is shrinking," she said.

- Pandas and public debt -

Takaichi has however not had everything her own way, in particular with regard to worries about her stewardship of the public finances of Asia's number-two economy.

She followed up a $135-billion stimulus package aimed at easing the pain of inflation -- a big cause of voter discontent -- with a campaign promise to suspend a consumption tax on food.

Japan's debt is more than twice the size of the entire economy, and in recent weeks yields on long-dated bonds have hit record highs, causing jitters worldwide.

"Various parties are proposing policies like abolishing the consumption tax. While that might be fine for now, I'm very worried about whether such measures are truly responsible for the generations that come after us," voter Taku Sakamoto, 49, told AFP.

"My biggest concern is not just the present, but what will become of Japan going forward," he said.

Her election triumph may also cause consternation in Beijing.

Barely two weeks in office, Takaichi -- seen before assuming the premiership as a China hawk -- suggested that Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.

China regards the democratic island as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to annex it.

With Takaichi having days earlier pulled out all the stops to welcome US President Donald Trump, Beijing's reaction to her unscripted remarks was furious.

It summoned Tokyo's ambassador, warned its citizens against visiting Japan and conducted joint air drills with Russia. Last month, Japan's last two pandas were even returned to China.

Trump has not publicly weighed in on the spat but last week endorsed Takaichi as a "strong, powerful, and wise Leader, and one that truly loves her Country".

Margarita Estevez-Abe, associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that the China episode raised Takaichi's popularity even more.

"Now she doesn't have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place," Estevez-Abe told AFP before the election.

"So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China."

B.Johnson--SFF