San Francisco Frontiers - Japan PM wins Trump backing ahead of snap election

Japan's first woman prime minister is hoping on Sunday to capitalise on her strong popularity since taking the reins of Asia's number-two economy in October.

Takaichi "has already proven to be a strong, powerful, and wise Leader, and one that truly loves her Country," Trump wrote on Truth Social as he announced she would visit the United States on March 19.

The United States and Japan have been working to strike a "very substantial" deal on trade, as well as collaborating on national security, Trump said, offering his "Complete and Total Endorsement".

"Prime Minister Takaichi is someone who deserves powerful recognition for the job she and her Coalition are doing," he added.

While US presidents have typically refrained from endorsing candidates in overseas elections, Trump has done so repeatedly, including throwing his backing behind Argentina's Javier Milei and Hungary's Viktor Orban.

Takaichi, 64, pulled out all the stops to welcome Trump to Japan days after she took office, endorsing the 79-year-old for the Nobel Peace Prize and gifting him golf memorabilia.

Trade officials in July reached a deal that saw Washington lower tariffs on Japanese goods to 15 percent from a threatened 25 percent in return for promises of investment.

Trump has not publicly weighed in on Takaichi's spat with China after she suggested in November that Japan would intervene militarily if China sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.

China has never ruled democratic Taiwan, but Beijing claims Taiwan and has not ruled out forcibly annexing it.

- Polls -

Pollsters -- with some caution due to undecided voters -- point to a resounding win in Sunday's elections for Takaichi after her honeymoon start.

She appears to have injected new vim into a once-mighty but now moribund Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after it was deserted en masse by voters in part because of inflation and a slush fund scandal.

Despite her ultraconservative policies, Takaichi also boasts overwhelming support among young people, in an ageing country where politics has long been determined by older voters.

"Her gamble (of calling elections) will pay handsome dividends as she will gain a strong mandate and probably a standalone majority that will help her enact an ambitious array of economic and security reforms," said Jeff Kingston, professor of history and Asian studies at Temple University Japan.

"Trump will welcome the election of a conservative leader with a strong mandate... He likes winners and she has come through on boosting defence spending and supporting the investment deal to reduce tariffs," Kingston told AFP.

Surveys ahead of Sunday's lower house election indicate -- with some caution due to undecided voters -- that the LDP will easily win more than the 233 seats needed to regain a majority.

A asmartphone-based survey of more than 220,000 people released by the Mainichi Shimbun daily on Friday suggested that the LDP may win more than 300 seats out of 465 up for grabs.

Together with seats won by the LDP's coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), this could give Takaichi's ruling bloc a two-thirds majority, the Mainichi said.

The new Centrist Reform Alliance of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the LDP's previous partner Komeito could lose half their current 167 seats, other polls have shown.

- Markets worried -

Besides angering China, Takaichi has already rattled markets, with yields on long-dated Japanese government bonds hitting record highs and the yen seesawing.

This is due to worries about Japan's colossal debt pile -- more than double the size of the economy -- from Takaichi's $135-billion stimulus package and pledges to cut taxes.

Abhijit Surya at Capital Economics said, however, that he was not worried that Takaichi would be "fiscally profligate".

"In the event that the government did attempt to play fast and loose with the public finances, we would expect bond markets to put it in check," the economist said.

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U.Campbell--SFF