San Francisco Frontiers - Voter swings raise midterm alarm bells for Trump's Republicans

A day later, after Democratic victory was certain, the president brushed off the loss in a district he had won in 2024 by 17 points as just a "local Texas race."

"I'm not involved with that," he told reporters.

But the major leftward swing in Texas, following on the heels of other recent Democratic gains, has raised alarm bells among Republicans over what it could mean for national elections in November.

"Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election," Florida Governor Ron DeSantis wrote on X, of the 30-point swing toward Democrats in the Texas election.

"That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed," he warned.

The governor called for his party to be "clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms" -- when Republicans' slim control of Congress is up for grabs and the future of Trump's presidency in play.

- 'Warning light' -

The Texas election "is certainly a warning light" for Republicans, said Princeton University political history professor Julian Zelizer.

"It means there are vulnerabilities... as a result of Trump's term. How deep the problems are and how enduring they will be remains unclear," he told AFP.

The Texas result was the latest evidence of mounting voter dissatisfaction with Trump's party.

In Minnesota, two albeit left-leaning districts saw Democratic candidates win with a whopping 95 percent of the vote last month.

While in a December special election in Tennessee, the Republican candidate's margin of victory shrank by more than 12 points compared to November 2024.

Democrats also easily secured victory in Virginia's governor and legislative races last year.

These setbacks, coupled with Trump's low poll numbers, suggest that "Democrats have a big opportunity," even in more Republican-leaning states, Zelizer said.

But will the trend continue into the midterms?

"I expect it will. Trump is not particularly strong when it comes to course correction," he said.

The professor noted that many Americans continue to have deep concerns about the cost of living, and are souring on Trump as he seemingly focuses more on foreign affairs and pet projects, such as his new gilded ballroom at the White House.

- MAGA schism -

On the right, criticism of Trump is still generally veiled, but some have begun daring to speak out against the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) leader, mostly notably, former Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Once one of Trump's most ardent backers, Greene resigned from Congress in January and has harshly criticized the president for allegedly abandoning his populist base.

"MAGA is -- I think people are realizing -- it was all a lie," Greene said in a recent podcast appearance.

"What MAGA is really serving, in this administration, who they're serving is their big donors," she said.

Trump seems well aware that Republicans face an uphill battle in November.

While repeatedly noting that the party in power typically loses seats in the midterm elections, Trump has said the historic precedent should be broken due to his accomplishments so far.

Any other result would be due to bad press coverage or electoral fraud, he has alleged.

On Monday, he called for federal authorities to take control of elections in some 15 states, repeating his unfounded claim of fraud.

Under the US Constitution, states administer elections.

On a rare positive note for the Republicans, the party has more than $95 million in its coffers ahead of the midterm campaign, compared to just $14 million for the Democrats.

J.Martinez--SFF