San Francisco Frontiers - Japan PM to call snap election seeking stronger mandate

The country's first woman leader, Takaichi is banking on her high poll numbers to lead the unpopular ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to victory.

After signalling her intentions to party officials last week, Takaichi will lay out her plans for a vote expected as early as February 8 during a press conference Monday, the Yomiuri and other media outlets reported.

The LDP has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for decades, albeit with frequent leader changes.

Takaichi was appointed prime minister in October and her cabinet is riding high in the polls, despite her party's flagging popularity.

But her ruling bloc -- which includes coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP), only has a slim majority in the powerful lower house of parliament.

This could hamper the passage of her policy agenda including "proactive" fiscal spending and boosting the defence budget.

"If the LDP can get a majority by itself in the lower house, that'll help her pursue policies" without concessions to other parties, said Sadafumi Kawato, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo.

Takaichi's cabinet approved a record 122.3-trillion-yen ($768 billion) budget for the fiscal year from April 2026, and she has vowed to get parliamentary approval as soon as possible to address inflation and shore up the world's fourth largest economy.

But opposition parties say Takaichi's plan to dissolve the lower house risks delaying its passage, with Jun Azumi of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) saying it would "sacrifice livelihoods".

Masaaki Tokuno, a 64-year-old bicycle lot manager, told AFP that "carrying out policies to tackle inflation should be first, before holding the election".

The LDP is weighing campaigning on a possible cut to the tax on food purchases, media reports said, to ease the pain of soaring costs at the grocery store.

- China spat -

A snap election may also help Takaichi break the deadlock in a spat with China, increasing her leverage by showing she has strong support at home, analysts said.

Ties between Tokyo and Beijing have deteriorated since Takaichi suggested in November that Japan could intervene militarily if China ever launched an attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island it claims.

However, Mikitaka Masuyama, dean of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, warned that if she wins, China could further intensify pressure on Takaichi.

Beijing may want to send voters "the message that supporting a hawkish leader could lead to pain" through more trade controls or other means.

China recently announced a broad ban on the export to Japan of "dual-use" goods with potential military applications, and has reportedly been choking off exports of rare-earth products crucial for making everything from electric cars to missiles.

According to a poll by the Asahi newspaper, 60 percent of people surveyed said they were worried about the impact of a worsening Japan-China relationship on the economy.

Under Takaichi's predecessor Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP and its former long-term coalition partner Komeito lost its majority in both chambers in the past two national elections -- most recently in the July upper house election.

The July election led Ishiba to step down, while smaller parties gaining support included the populist Sanseito, which called immigration a "silent invasion", despite foreign-born residents making up just three percent of the population.

Komeito and the leading CDP have agreed to join forces to fight Takaichi, hoping their alliance can draw swing voters.

Z.Phillips--SFF