San Francisco Frontiers - Taiwan eyes fresh diplomatic ties with Honduras

Now, it is just the odd "container or two", but that could change if Honduras's next president acts on an election pledge to forge closer ties with Taiwan.

The country's decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing and scrap a free trade agreement with Taiwan was a huge blow for the Honduran shrimp industry.

Imports plunged from around 13,000 tonnes in 2022 to nearly 4,000 tonnes in 2024, Taiwanese data shows, as 20 percent tariffs made Honduran shrimp more expensive.

A diplomatic reversal would be a "good thing" for business and Taiwanese consumers, Yen told AFP at the headquarters of his family-run company Yens in Taipei.

"For us, we (would) have more choices to source white shrimp... And the end consumer will have more choices."

Nasry Asfura and Salvador Nasralla, who are neck and neck in the presidential race in Honduras, where vote counting is still underway, have both signalled support for switching ties from Beijing to Taipei.

China claims Taiwan is part of its territory and has been systematically poaching its few remaining diplomatic allies in an effort to isolate the island.

A Honduran switch back would be a rare diplomatic win for Taiwan, but Taiwanese officials are responding cautiously.

"We are taking a proactive and open attitude," Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said recently in response to questions from lawmakers.

Taiwan was in contact with Asfura and Nasralla's teams, Lin said, but added: "Whatever we do must be beneficial to them and to us."

- Negotiating tactic? -

Honduras's move in 2023 to end decades of diplomatic relations with Taipei followed negotiations with China on building a hydroelectric dam.

Taiwan said at the time that the switch was part of China's "coercion and intimidation" of Taipei's allies.

China does not allow countries to maintain official ties with both Beijing and Taipei.

Since then, China has expanded its economic influence over Honduras, but has drawn criticism for flooding the country with cheap goods, employing Chinese workers on infrastructure projects and failing to buy enough shrimp.

It's also cost tens of thousands of jobs as dozens of companies closed, said Javier Amador, executive director of the National Association of Aquaculturists of Honduras.

Amador said shipments to Taiwan were more than six times the volume sent to China "even with the disadvantage of paying tariffs."

On the campaign trail, Nasralla said: "Taiwan has been our great ally for more than 60 years. What has China given us?"

But the Honduran presidential candidates' support for Taiwan could be a "negotiation tactic", said Fabricio Fonseca, associate professor in the Department of Diplomacy at Taipei's National Chengchi University.

"If China is sensing that they are really serious about this, then, of course, there might be many offers that China can make," Fonseca said.

"If in the end, they (Asfura or Nasralla) decide not to stick to this campaign promise, they have something to show in return."

The United States could be a deciding factor if it were to help Taiwan woo back Honduras, he said.

- 'Good quality' coffee -

Honduran coffee trader Elias Argueta hopes his country renews ties with Taiwan, where he lives with his wife and young daughter.

Argueta, 34, began importing beans directly from his parents' farms in Honduras in 2020 into the Taiwanese market, where coffee from Guatemala and Colombia is popular.

Since the diplomatic break-up, it has been harder to secure new customers because Taiwan's government stopped promoting Honduran coffee beans.

If relations are restored, "people will be more open to take Honduran coffee, and definitely the official channels will open again here in Taiwan," Argueta said.

"We do have a very good quality," he added.

Mending ties between Honduras and Taiwan would not mean an immediate snap back in trade volumes, said Yen, the seafood trader.

However, it would provide the catalyst.

"Even if Taiwan does rebuild the relationship with Honduras and sign a (free trade agreement), it might take at least six months to almost a year for the industry to rebuild, for us to restart the business," Yen said.

"But we're looking forward to it."

V.Perez--SFF