San Francisco Frontiers - Chile follows Latin American neighbors in lurching right

Leftist leaders have not won a single presidential election in Latin America this year as voters tired of economic woes and invigorated by strongman rhetoric in the style of US President Donald Trump or El Salvador's gang-busting leader Nayib Bukele, opt for change.

Chile was the latest domino to fall, with 59-year-old anti-abortion, tough-on-crime candidate Jose Antonio Kast taking 58 percent of the vote versus 42 percent for leftist rival Jeannette Jara.

"Kast's victory largely reflects... disenchantment with all traditional political groups in Chile and Latin America," political analyst Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank told AFP.

In October, neighbor Bolivia ended two decades of socialist government, with pro-business conservative Rodrigo Paz taking over a country battling its worst economic crisis in decades.

In Peru, too, an anti-crime politician took over in the form of 39-year-old Jose Jeri, who replaced the ousted Dina Boluarte -- blamed for a surge in graft and criminality.

Further north, in Honduras, Trump-backed conservative Nasry Asfura holds a slight lead over another right-wing candidate, Salvador Nasralla, as votes are counted. The ruling left is in a distant third.

The US president has become increasingly vocal in his support for allies in the region, having threatened to cut aid to Argentina and Honduras if his picks did not win.

- 'Enemies within' -

Carolina Urrego-Sandoval, an international relations expert at Colombia's Los Andes University, said Kast was the product of growing popularity among voters in Latin America and elsewhere for nationalist narratives focused on security and the threat from "enemies within."

Kast campaigned on an anti-crime, anti-immigration platform, vowing to fight against "chaos."

Despite being one of the safest countries in the region, voters in Chile perceive crime to be on a dangerous upward trend, and many blame migrants, particularly from crisis-torn Venezuela.

"These are themes shared with other countries in the region and in so far as they dominate the agenda in Latin America, they benefit the right," said Shifter.

A case in point: El Salvador's Bukele, beloved by many despite rights concerns, for slashing violent crime in what used to be one of the world's most dangerous countries.

Kast himself visited El Salvador last year, and toured Bukele's brutal CECOT "anti-terrorism" prison -- a tactic he hoped would resonate with voters at home.

- No guarantee -

Analysts say Latin America's rightward lurch may not last.

"More than an ideological shift, we're seeing a pattern of rejecting governments that don’t deliver results," said Shifter.

"Chileans, like other Latin Americans, are pragmatic and want to see what kinds of governments work... for them," he said.

If they fail, "there’s no guarantee that this trend, this shift in Chile’s case and in Latin America more broadly, is going to last long."

Mexico's leftist President Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday Chile's election outcome should prompt "reflection" among Latin America's left.

Geopolitically, the far right in Chile could hasten a return to US interventionism in Latin America, where ever more leaders align themselves with Trump, said Guillaume Long, a senior research fellow at the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research.

But there are limits, and even Kast is unlikely to dance to Trump's tune on China -- a major trade and investment ally of Chile, he added.

On Tuesday, Kast will travel to Argentina on his first foreign trip as president-elect, meeting libertarian President Javier Milei.

W.Thompson--SFF