San Francisco Frontiers - Nobel event cancellation raises questions over Machado's whereabouts

Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 10 for her efforts to bring democracy to Venezuela, challenging the iron-fisted rule of Nicolas Maduro, who has been president since 2013.

Originally scheduled for 1:00 pm (1200 GMT), the press conference with the 58-year-old, who went into hiding in her country in August 2024, was first postponed before finally being cancelled.

"Maria Corina Machado herself said how difficult it was to come to Norway. We hope she will attend the Nobel Prize award ceremony" on Wednesday, institute spokesman Erik Aasheim told AFP.

Following speculation about her whereabouts over the last few days, reporters were anticipating her first public appearance in 11 months.

Machado last appeared in public at a demonstration in Caracas on January 9, protesting against Maduro's inauguration for his third term.

Machado has accused Maduro of stealing the July 2024 election she was banned from standing in, a claim backed by much of the international community.

- 'Fugitive' -

Venezuela's attorney general, Tarek William Saab, said last month the opposition leader would be considered a "fugitive" if she travelled to Norway to accept the prize.

"By being outside Venezuela and having numerous criminal investigations, she is considered a fugitive," Saab told AFP, adding that she is accused of "acts of conspiracy, incitement of hatred, terrorism".

Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said Monday that he did not know if she would travel to Oslo.

A trip to Oslo would raise thorny questions over her possible return to Venezuela or her ability to lead the Venezuelan opposition from exile.

Michael Shifter, associate professor at Georgetown University, said that "under any scenario -- whether Machado can or can't return to Venezuela -- it will be very difficult to sustain momentum for the movement she inspired absent any progress in moving towards political change".

"To be sure, it will be hard for Machado to lead the opposition in exile. But it will not be easy for her to do so even based in the country (when) most Venezuelans are facing dire economic and humanitarian conditions and increased repression by the Maduro regime," he told AFP.

The Nobel prize ceremony will take place on Wednesday at 1:00 pm (1200 GMT) at Oslo's City Hall.

Several members of Machado's family, including her mother, her three sisters and three children, were already in Oslo for the event.

But none of them have disclosed Machado's location, with some claiming to be unaware of where she is.

Several Latin American leaders, including Argentina's President Javier Milei -- like Machado, an ally of US President Donald Trump -- were also expected to attend the ceremony.

- Aligned with Trump -

Seen in Oslo on Monday was Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino, who said he came to "congratulate the hero of democracy and the struggling Venezuelan people" and voiced hope for a "return to democracy in Venezuela as soon as possible".

A large police presence has meanwhile stood guard since Monday outside the Grand Hotel in central Oslo, which traditionally hosts the Nobel Peace Prize laureates, AFP journalists said.

While Machado has been hailed by many for her efforts to bring democracy to Venezuela, she has also been criticised by others for aligning herself with Trump, to whom she dedicated her Nobel Prize.

The Oslo ceremony coincides with a large US military build-up in the Caribbean in recent weeks and deadly strikes on what Washington says are drug smuggling boats.

Maduro insists that the real goal of the US operations -- which Machado has said are justified -- is to topple the government and seize Venezuela's oil reserves.

C.Diaz--SFF