San Francisco Frontiers - Putin visits India for defence, trade talks

The Russian leader, making his first trip to India since the start of the Ukraine war, will be accompanied by a delegation that includes his Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, with media reports saying a fighter jet deal may be on the table.

Putin is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday for a private dinner, followed by a summit meeting and a business gathering the next day.

Beyond defence, trade relations are expected to be on the agenda as Delhi treads a tightrope, relying on strategic Russian imports while seeking to avoid angering US President Donald Trump amid ongoing tariff negotiations.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the supply of Russia's advanced S-400 air defence systems had an "important place on the agenda".

India currently has three S-400 units, with delivery of two more pending under a 2018 deal stalled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions.

Media reports in India suggested Moscow may also offer co-production of Russia's Su-57 fighter jets.

India is one of the world's top arms importers, with Russia being one of its main suppliers historically, but Delhi in recent years has sought to boost domestic production.

The Russian share of India's arms imports fell from 76 percent in 2009-13 to 36 percent in 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

- Energy imports -

Putin's visit comes after Trump slapped 50 percent tariffs on most Indian products in August as punishment for Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, which Washington claims helps finance the war in Ukraine.

India, the world's most populous nation, has become a major buyer of Russian oil, saving itself billions of dollars and providing Moscow with a much-needed export market after it was cut off from traditional buyers in Europe because of the war.

But Delhi has recently cut down on crude imports under pressure from sanctions on Russia's top oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

The Indian government fears any fresh energy or defence deals with Russia could irk Trump, with possible ramifications on ongoing trade negotiations with Washington.

Peskov said Russia was not concerned about US tariffs.

"What concerns us is how we are going to maintain and increase the volume of our bilateral business with India without allowing anyone to interfere," he said Tuesday at a briefing for Indian media organised by Sputnik India.

Nandan Unnikrishnan of the New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation told AFP: "There may be some reduction in energy purchases -- under US pressure -- but the overall direction of the ties will be maintained because both countries need each other at the strategic level."

Even if Delhi cuts back on its Russian energy purchases, Moscow would still remain a critical source of spares for the bulk of its legacy military hardware.

- 'Critical moment' -

A senior Indian foreign ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a need to address the trade imbalance "one way or the other".

Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion in 2024-25 -- almost six times higher than the pre-pandemic levels -- but Indian exports accounted for only $4.88 billion.

Delhi has been pressing Moscow for expanded market access for its key industries including pharmaceuticals, automobiles and the service sector.

Unnikrishnan said the visit by Putin -- who last travelled to India in December 2021 -- would provide the two leaders an opportunity to discuss the "global situation, as well as what is happening in Ukraine".

Harsh V Pant, a professor of international relations at King's College London, said the visit was an "attempt by the two sides to reset their relationship at a critical geopolitical moment for both".

"For India, the optics is a statement of intent for strategic autonomy, and Putin, who rarely travels, is sending a message about the importance of the relationship by travelling here," Pant told AFP.

The Indian foreign ministry official described the ties between Moscow and Delhi as the "most stable relationship in modern times".

The official acknowledged the global geopolitical significance, but insisted that the meeting should "be seen in its bilateral context".

"This is just another annual summit between two countries with a steady relationship."

P.Adams--SFF