San Francisco Frontiers - Inside Ukraine's efforts to revamp US plan to end war

Over the weekend, officials from the United States, Ukraine and Europe scrambled at emergency talks in Geneva to revise the 28-point blueprint.

Moscow, which in turn held talks with Washington in Abu Dhabi this week, described the ongoing negotiations as "serious".

Though the amended plan has not been disclosed, it no longer includes Moscow's maximalist demands, which Ukraine saw as a capitulation, according to sources familiar with the talks who spoke to AFP in Kyiv.

But it has yet to offer a solution for the key diplomatic stumbling block of the occupied Ukrainian territories.

Here is what we know about the revised plan so far:

- Territories and security -

The new version of the plan, shortened to around 20 points from the initial 28, does not settle the status of the Ukrainian territories in the east and south occupied by Russia.

Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering the worst armed conflict in Europe since World War II, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees.

The early draft included the "recognition" of the occupied areas -- around one-fifth of the country -- as de facto Russian. It also required the Ukrainian army to withdraw from the territories it controls in the eastern Donetsk region.

This issue, the most painful for Kyiv, is now expected to be ironed out during direct talks between the US and Ukrainian presidents in Washington.

"The issue of territory is obviously one of the most difficult," said Oleksandr Bevz, one of the Ukrainian negotiators in Geneva.

"A dialogue between the presidents is required" on "sensitive issues such as territories and security guarantees", he told AFP.

Ukraine, invaded by Russia twice since 2014, insists on unwavering security guarantees from the West.

- Army -

The latest version of the plan allows Ukraine to have an 800,000-strong army, compared to a cap of 600,000 soldiers in the earlier text, a senior official familiar with the talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told AFP on Tuesday.

"It's not that there's a cap or not. It's roughly like it is now," the source said.

Bevz declined to confirm the figure, but said that in Geneva, "our Chief of Defence Staff explained to the American side" that "Ukraine's ability to defend itself is decisive".

- NATO -

After the talks in the scenic Swiss city, Washington and Kyiv said that a "future peace agreement" must "fully respect Ukraine's sovereignty".

For Kyiv, this means the absence of a Russian veto on its potential accession to NATO, which Ukraine sees as a key bulwark against Moscow.

According to the early version of the US plan, Kyiv would have to enshrine the pledge to never join the alliance in its constitution, while NATO would have to amend its statutes to prevent Ukraine ever becoming a member.

- Nuclear plant -

The first draft stipulated that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia has occupied since 2022, would start producing electricity again.

But it also divided the output of Europe's largest nuclear plant equally between Russia and Ukraine.

The revised text "has been improved" on the Zaporizhzhia front, a source close to the Ukrainian delegation in Geneva told AFP, without elaborating further.

- Ceasefire -

The initial US blueprint provided for a ceasefire once all parties have agreed.

"The point on the ceasefire remained the same as in the first version," the source close to the Ukrainian delegation told AFP.

Kyiv and its European allies have consistently insisted on a ceasefire as a prerequisite for any negotiations on a lasting peace. European officials "were present at a part" of the US-Ukrainian talks in Geneva, said Bevz, the negotiator.

- No Moscow rejection yet -

After Russia welcomed parts of the new US plan, top Kremlin diplomatic aide Yuri Ushakov said that "some aspects can be viewed positively".

"But many others require special discussion among experts," he added in comments on Russian television.

Later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the ongoing diplomatic efforts as a "serious process".

- 'Doable' for Kyiv -

Unlike the initial draft, the new version of the plan appears more acceptable to Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that "many of the right elements have been taken into account" in the latest version, which could "become doable".

Bevz said that "given the determination of the American side, there are optimistic expectations that this will lead" to a "lasting peace".

However, the new draft does not provide for any timeline, the negotiator noted.

L.Nguyen--SFF