San Francisco Frontiers - Ecuador voters set to reject return of US military bases

With more than half the votes counted, about 60 percent of Ecuadorans had voted 'no' to lifting a longstanding ban on foreign bases.

Nearly 14 million Ecuadorans were eligible to cast ballots on whether to overturn a 2008 ban on foreign military bases in the country.

The rejection blocks the US military from returning to an airbase at Manta on the Pacific coast -- once a hub for Washington's anti-drug operations.

It is also a major political blow for Noboa, who has staked his political fortunes on tackling rampant cartel violence and trying to forge an alliance with US President Donald Trump.

The vote came against the backdrop of US military airstrikes against alleged drug smuggling boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, a divisive policy that Noboa has backed.

"The president's campaign has been disastrous," said 28-year-old engineer Oscar Varela. "Everything his government has said has been a lie."

Voters were also asked three other questions: whether they should end public funding for political parties, reduce the number of lawmakers, and create an elected body that would draft a new constitution.

Noboa had hoped a new constitution would give him more powers to tackle crime, curb the power of the judiciary, and reform the economy.

The early count showed those proposals failing by a large margin, too.

- Unprecedented violence -

The result is a shock. Polls had predicted that Noboa would win on all four questions, and he remains personally popular, having recently won a second term in office.

The referendum took place amid unprecedented violence sparked by turf wars between drug trafficking gangs who transport cocaine from Latin America to North America, Europe, and Asia.

In office since November 2023, Noboa has deployed soldiers on the streets and in prisons, launched dramatic raids on drug strongholds, and declared frequent states of emergency -- criticized by human rights groups.

The 37-year-old Porsche-driving millionaire has also posted images of hundreds of inmates, their heads shaved, in orange uniforms being moved to a new mega-prison, echoing moves by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele.

Still, in the first half of this year, there were 4,619 murders -- the "highest in recent history," according to Ecuador's Organized Crime Observatory.

Just as voting began, Noboa announced that the leader of the country's most notorious gang, Los Lobos, had been captured.

The most-wanted drug kingpin known as "Pipo" had "faked his death, changed his identity, and hid in Europe," Noboa said on X.

Interior Minister John Reimberg later said "Pipo" had been detained in Spain in a joint operation between Ecuadoran and Spanish police.

- Controversial US strikes -

Once much safer, Ecuador now has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America, and many would like to give Noboa freer rein.

"It is the only way to toughen the laws a bit and put an end to the insecurity our country is experiencing," Teresa Jacome, 60, told AFP in the crime-ridden largest city of Guayaquil.

The prospect of aiding Trump's deadly air campaign against alleged drug trafficking boats loomed in some voters' minds.

Many Latin American governments are opposed, but Ecuador has become one of Washington's top champions in the region.

Noboa has asked for Trump's help in tackling cartels and floated the idea of US bases returning to Ecuadoran soil.

Regarding the other questions on the ballot, Noboa says the current constitution, at 400-plus articles, is too long and has "many errors."

But he had been coy about what parts of the constitution he would like to change, leading to allegations he wants to consolidate power and curb rights.

The body to draft a new constitution would likely be dominated by Noboa's allies, given his approval rating of around 56 percent.

U.Campbell--SFF