San Francisco Frontiers - Ecuador to vote on foreign troops, constitutional reform

Nearly 14 million Ecuadorans will vote on four questions that will decide how the country tackles rampant drug violence and addresses economic reforms.

Voters will decide on the presence of foreign military bases, which have been banned on Ecuadoran soil since 2008.

A "Yes" vote would likely bring the return of the US military to the Manta airbase on the Pacific coast -- once a hub for US anti-drug operations.

Other questions concern ending public funding for political parties, reducing the number of lawmakers, and creating an elected body that would draft a new constitution.

It is likely to be dominated by President Daniel Noboa's allies, given his approval rating of around 56 percent.

Noboa says the current constitution, at 400-plus articles, is too long and has "many errors."

But he has been coy about what parts of the constitution he would like to change, leading to allegations he wants to consolidate power and curb rights.

Noboa is seeking support for his aggressive stance against drug cartels, after courts blocked several of his initiatives for violating fundamental rights.

He has expressed the need to crack down on "criminals" and put them in the "worst prisons."

Sunday's vote takes place amid unprecedented violence sparked by turf wars and side hustles of drug trafficking gangs.

In office since November 2023, Noboa has deployed soldiers on the streets and in prisons, launched dramatic raids on drug strongholds, and declared frequent states of emergency -- criticized by human rights groups.

The 37-year-old millionaire has also posted images of hundreds of inmates, their head shaves, in orange uniforms being moved to a new mega-prison, echoing El Salvador's Nayib Bukele.

Still, in the first half of this year, there were 4,619 murders -- the "highest in recent history," according to Ecuador's Organized Crime Observatory.

Once much safer, Ecuador now has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America and many would like to give Noboa freer rein.

"When criminals are caught, judges release them right away," said Juan Carlos Azogue, a 46-year-old security guard who plans to vote "Yes."

"Laws and the constitution should change," he told AFP.

Jhonny Tamayo, a 40-year-old university professor who marched for the "No" campaign, said he opposes "the lies of this government that blames the constitution for its failure to fight crime."

Experts also expect Noboa to try to curb the power of the Constitutional Court and facilitate trade agreements, among other measures.

The son of a banana tycoon, Noboa also aims to reshape the state and economic model to give more space to the private sector.

- US influence -

The vote takes place against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, with US President Donald Trump authorizing frequent strikes in the Pacific and Caribbean.

Many Latin American governments are opposed, but Ecuador has become one of Washington's top champions in the region.

Noboa has asked for Trump's help in tackling cartels and floated the idea of US bases returning.

In early November, Noboa toured potential military base sites with US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, including the former Manta base.

"We need cooperation from other countries because crime is transnational," Noboa said.

According to pollster Cedatos, 61 percent of respondents support a "yes" vote on foreign bases.

But 20-year-old university student Luz Quisi is skeptical.

"The government has cut too much social spending in the name of security, and we've made no progress," she said.

I.Wright--SFF