San Francisco Frontiers - No end to Sudan fighting despite RSF paramilitaries backing truce plan

The government, backed by the army, has yet to respond to US-led international mediators, and explosions rocked the army-controlled capital Khartoum on Friday.

Experts express doubt about whether the RSF is truly ready to implement a truce, and warn it is in fact preparing an offensive to capture city of el-Obeid in the south.

But the conflict may nevertheless be at a turning point.

Fighting has raged since April 2023, pitting the forces of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against those of his former deputy, RSF commander Mohammed Hamdan Daglo.

The United Arab Emirates is accused by the United Nations of supplying arms to the RSF, allegations it has repeatedly denied.

The Sudanese army, meanwhile, has received support from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, according to observers.

Now, the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are backing a proposed ceasefire.

Here is what we know after two years and almost seven months of a war that has killed tens of thousands, displaced nearly 12 million and triggered a hunger crisis:

- RSF victory in Darfur -

Less than two weeks ago the RSF captured El-Fasher, the army's last major stronghold in western Darfur.

The takeover was accompanied by reports of mass killings, sexual violence and looting, triggering international condemnation.

There are now fears of further atrocities as the conflict shifts east toward Khartoum and the oil-rich Kordofan region.

Under international pressure, the RSF now says it is ready to consider a ceasefire, but the army has not responded and observers are unconvinced.

"Its only intent is to distract from the atrocities it is currently committing in El Fasher and position itself as more responsible than the army," Cameron Hudson of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies told AFP.

The army, he said, is now "focused on retaking all of Kordofan and then proceeding on to El-Fasher".

El-Fasher's fall has given the paramilitaries control over all five state capitals in Darfur and parts of the south while the army now dominates northern, eastern and central areas along the Nile and Red Sea.

"The RSF, now that they control all of Darfur, has an incentive to try to bring food and assistance into areas under their control, but the army has an incentive to not allow the RSF to consolidate its gains," Hudson said.

No details of the ceasefire proposal have been made public, but a senior Saudi official told AFP that it calls for a "three-month truce", during which both sides would be encouraged to hold talks in Jeddah on a permanent peace deal.

- New explosions -

On Friday, one day after RSF responded positively to the ceasefire idea, explosions were heard in Khartoum and in Atbara, an army-held city around 300 kilometres (186 miles) north of Khartoum, according to witnesses who spoke to AFP.

Khartoum has seen relative calm since the regular army regained control this year, but the RSF continues to mount attacks in several regions.

A resident in Omdurman, part of the greater Khartoum area, told AFP on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal, he was awoken "around 2 am (0000 GMT) by the sound of ... explosions near the Wadi Sayidna military base".

Another resident said they "heard a drone overhead around 4:00 am before an explosion struck near" a power station, causing an outage in the area.

In Atbara a resident saw several drones before dawn on Friday.

"Anti-aircraft defences shot them down, but I saw fires breaking out and heard sounds of explosions in the east of the city," the resident said, also on condition of anonymity.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Neither the army nor the RSF commented on the blasts, though the RSF has been using long-range drones to strike army-held areas since it lost control of the capital.

- Fighting in Kordofan -

In the south, the Sudan Doctors' Union accused the RSF of shelling a hospital in the besieged city of Dilling in South Kordofan on Thursday morning, wounding several people.

In a statement, the union said that the shelling "destroyed the hospital's radiology and medical imaging department", crippling one of the region's vital health facilities.

Dilling has been under RSF siege since June 2023. It lies around 150 kilometres (93 miles) southwest of El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan -- a key crossroads linking Darfur to Khartoum.

- Famine and oil -

Independent verification remains difficult due to heavy fighting and communications blackouts in the area, but Dilling faces a severe humanitarian crisis.

According to the Rome-based Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the city is now at risk of famine, while the state capital, Kadugli, is already facing one.

Famine has also been confirmed in Darfur's El-Fasher and three nearby displacement camps. Last year, the IPC also declared famine in parts of South Kordofan's Nuba Mountains.

South Kordofan, which borders South Sudan, is one of Sudan's most resource-rich areas and home to the Heglig oil field, among the country's largest.

G.Allen--SFF