San Francisco Frontiers - Ouattara tipped for fourth term as Ivory Coast goes to polls

Ouattara, 83, has wielded power in the world's top cocoa producer since 2011, when the country began reasserting itself as a west African economic powerhouse.

His allies are targeting a decisive win in the first round to avoid a run-off vote.

Nearly nine million Ivorians will vote between 8:00 am (0800 GMT) and 6:00 pm, choosing between five contenders.

"It is hard to imagine any surprise at the end of this election... since opposition heavyweights aren't present," Gilles Yabi of think tank Wathi told AFP.

Leading rivals -- former president Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam -- have been barred from standing, the former for a criminal conviction and the latter for acquiring French nationality.

- Banned rallies -

Their parties have encouraged Ivorians to protest against this decision and Ouattara's predicted fourth term.

Four people, including one policeman, have died in sporadic unrest, while on Monday an independent electoral commission building was torched.

The government has responded by banning demonstrations and the judiciary has sentenced several dozen people to three years in prison for disturbing the peace.

Some 44,000 security forces have been deployed across the country of 30 million to keep protests in check, especially in former opposition fiefdoms in the south and west.

A night-time curfew was in place on Friday and Saturday in Yamoussoukro region, where the political capital is located.

Authorities say they want to avoid "chaos" and a repeat of unrest surrounding the 2020 presidential election, in which 85 people died.

- 'More fear than harm' -

"I ask you to closely monitor your neighbourhoods... We must be ready to protect Ivory Coast," Ouattara said during his final rally on Thursday.

"The election is frightening but we dare to believe there will be more fear than harm," said Ibrahime Kuibiert Coulibaly, head of the Independent Electoral Commission.

On Wednesday, Gbagbo condemned the upcoming poll as a "civilian coup d'etat" and "electoral robbery".

"Those who could have won have been eliminated. I do not accept this," he said without giving clear directions to his supporters for Saturday's ballot.

Turnout will be key.

Voters in southern and western regions that are historically pro-Gbagbo or pro-Thiam could shun the polls in the absence of voting instructions from their leaders.

Meanwhile, the ruling RHDP is hopeful for a strong showing in the pro-Ouattara north.

- Four candidates -

None of the four rival candidates represents an established party nor do they have the reach of the RHDP.

Former trade minister and agri-businessmen Jean-Louis Billon, 60, hopes to rally backers from his former stable, the Democratic Party.

Former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, 76, is looking to garner votes from supporters of her ex-husband.

The left-wing vote hangs in the balance between Simone Gbagbo and Ahoua Don Mello, a civil engineer and independent Pan-African with Russian sympathies.

Then there is centrist Henriette Lagou, a moderate who also stood in the 2015 presidential poll, garnering less than one percent.

Ouattara came to power in the throes of a crisis following the 2010-2011 presidential clash between him and Gbagbo, which cost more than 3,000 lives among their supporters.

The government points to several years of strong economic growth and general security, despite jihadist threats on its borders.

Critics deplore the fact that the undisputed growth has only benefitted a small portion of the population and has been accompanied by a spiralling cost of living.

Nearly 1,000 civilian observers from Ivorian society are monitoring the vote, alongside another 251 from west African economic bloc ECOWAS and the African Union.

Results are expected early next week.

F.Young--SFF