San Francisco Frontiers - Overshooting 1.5C climate target 'inevitable': UN chief

Ahead of next month's COP30 climate summit in Brazil, Guterres said going beyond 1.5C would result in "devastating" yet predictable impacts.

"One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain the global warming below 1.5 degrees in the next few years," Guterres said at the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) weather and climate agency in Geneva.

"Overshooting is now inevitable. Which means that we're going to have a period, bigger or smaller, with higher or lower intensity, above 1.5 degrees in the years to come."

However, if there is a "paradigm shift" and leaders take the problem seriously by driving towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions, "the 1.5 still remains -- according to all the scientists I met -- possible before the end of the century".

The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels -- and 1.5C if possible.

Scientists emphasise the importance of containing global warming as each fraction of a degree increase further increases risks such as heat waves or destruction of marine life.

Containing warming to 1.5C rather than 2C would significantly limit its most catastrophic consequences, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which aggregates the work of scientists worldwide.

- Climate disinformation fightback -

Ahead of the COP30 summit next month in Brazil, Guterres also insisted on the need to "fight mis- and disinformation, online harassment, and greenwashing".

"Scientists and researchers should never fear telling the truth."

His remarks will be seen in some quarters as a riposte to Trump's speech at the United Nations in New York, in which the Republican president championed fossil fuels and derided green technologies.

"Climate change -- it's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion," said Trump.

The "carbon footprint is a hoax made up by people with evil intentions", he said.

"We're getting rid of the falsely named renewables, by the way: they're a joke, they don't work, they're too expensive," he added, about his administration's war on solar and wind power, bolstered by a new law that ends clean energy tax credits.

- Planet on the 'brink' -

But Guterres insisted that in 2024, "almost all new power capacity came from renewables", and investment was surging.

"Renewables are the cheapest, fastest and smartest source of new power. They represent the only credible path to end the relentless destruction of our climate," he insisted.

The WMO is marking its 75 anniversary this year, and is leading the charge for all countries to be covered by extreme weather early warning systems by 2027.

"Global warming is pushing our planet to the brink," said Guterres.

"Every one of the last 10 years has been the hottest in history. Ocean heat is breaking records while decimating ecosystems. And no country is safe from fires, floods, storms and heatwaves."

Before the COP30, the UN secretary-general urged countries to "deliver bold new national climate action plans that align with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius".

He said these had to include commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, adding: "Much greater ambition is required."

F.Garcia--SFF