San Francisco Frontiers - Czech billionaire ex-PM's party leads in parliamentary vote

His ANO (Yes) party, campaigning on pledges of welfare and halting military aid to Ukraine, scored 36.5 percent of the vote in country of 10.9 million people, according to interim figures.

The Together grouping of outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala came second with 21.8 percent, ahead of its coalition partner STAN with 10.8 percent.

A total of six parties looked on track to enter parliament, with final results expected later on Saturday. The country is a member of both the EU and NATO.

Fiala's government has provided humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine since it was invaded by Russia in February 2022.

But Babis's return to power could draw the Czech Republic closer to EU mavericks Hungary and Slovakia which have refused military aid to Ukraine and oppose sanctions on Russia.

In the European Parliament, ANO is part of the far-right Patriots for Europe bloc, which Babis himself co-founded with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The 71-year-old Babis, a self-proclaimed "Trumpist", said he preferred a single-party government, but he the results indicate he would partners to rule.

Potential partners include the opposition far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), which gained a preliminary 8.1 percent, and the non-parliamentary right-wing Motorists with 6.9 percent.

- 'Good news' -

The SPD is promoting a referendum on the Czech Republic leaving the European Union, something that Babis has vehemently rejected.

"What lies ahead for us is probably a government led by Andrej Babis, but the question is who he will join forces with," Otto Eibl, an analyst at Masaryk University in the second Czech city of Brno, told AFP.

He said ANO would probably team up with the SPD or with the small Motorists party.

"For foreign policy, a Babis government with the Motorists could actually be good news," he said, predicting Babis could continue more or less in Fiala's footsteps.

Czech President Petr Pavel, who will tap the next premier under the constitution, said he would start talks with the elected party heads on Sunday.

Describing himself as a "peacemonger" calling for a truce in Ukraine, Babis has vowed a "Czechs first" approach and "a better life for all Czechs" -- echoing US President Donald Trump.

When he was prime minister from 2017 to 2021, Babis was critical of some EU policies and is on good terms with Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico, who have maintained ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine.

- Russian propaganda -

Voting in Prague, retired university teacher Bedrich Ludvik said he was worried about the future Czech foreign policy if Babis wins.

"I'm a European, I'm a Westerner, I don't want to go east," he said. "I'm afraid that Babiš and his ilk will pull us eastward. I wouldn't like that."

But Charles University analyst Josef Mlejnek told AFP he did not expect "a fundamental change" in Czech foreign policy under Babis, who has business interests in western Europe.

"Babis is a pragmatic businessman and the only thing he cares about is being prime minister," he added.

Petr Just, an analyst at the Metropolitan University in Prague, told AFP a government led by Babis might use harsher rhetoric towards Brussels.

"I would certainly not rule out that we will witness some rhetorical questioning of certain Western steps or actions that the West will take,"he said.

Analysts have pointed out the role of Russian propaganda in the election campaign.

The Czech Online Risks Research Centre said last week that Czech-language accounts on TikTok reaching millions of viewers "systematically spread pro-Russian propaganda and support anti-system parties through manipulated engagement".

The European Commission held an "emergency meeting" with TikTok on Thursday "in the context of the Czech elections", after which the social media platform removed "several bots", said its spokesman Thomas Regnier.

C.Williams--SFF