San Francisco Frontiers - China unveils steady but restrained climate goals

The pledge, delivered via video by President Xi Jinping to a UN climate summit where some 120 nations will outline plans to curb global warming, comes as disasters intensify worldwide -- from catastrophic floods in Pakistan to raging wildfires in Spain.

While the headline target may seem modest, China has a record of under-promising while overdelivering, driven by its green technology boom.

"Green and low carbon transition is the trend of our time," said Xi. "While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused in the right direction."

China, responsible for 30 percent of global emissions, had previously pledged to peak its carbon output before 2030 -- a goal it appears on track to meet five years early.

The new target for 2035 is backed by commitments to expand wind and solar six times over 2020 levels, drastically expand forests, and ramp up electric cars production.

Most wealthy nations, historically the biggest contributors to warming, peaked decades ago but still lack credible plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

"Beijing's commitment is a cautious step that favors steadiness and delivery over ambition" Li Shuo, an expert at the Asia Society think tank who is well-connected in Beijing, told AFP.

- Behind schedule -

"The good news is that in a world increasingly driven by self-interest, China may be better positioned than most to advance climate action," he added.

The stated trajectory, similar to the path followed by the US and EU in the decade after their peak emissions, would fall well short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels -- the target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst climate catastrophes.

But by presenting a target well ahead of COP30, the year's main climate gathering in Belem, Brazil, China signals its ongoing commitment to the international process even as the US under Trump champions fossil fuels and the EU struggles to unite around its plan.

For this UN summit, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invited only countries ready to present or announce a new 2035 climate goal.

The US, which has withdrawn from the Paris accord for a second time under President Donald Trump, was absent a day after he addressed the world body and mocked climate change as a "con job."

Under the 2015 accord -- which nearly every country is part of -- nations freely set their own targets but must strengthen them every five years.

Most are behind schedule, notably the European Union, where several states fear moving too fast could hurt industry.

France, for example, faces shaky finances and political turmoil, and wants more clarity on investment frameworks before committing to deeper decarbonization.

- Catastrophism v hope -

The UN is trying to strike a balance between warning of catastrophe and maintaining hope.

On one hand, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told AFP last week that chances of limiting warming to 1.5C are on the verge of "collapsing," a view echoed by climatologists, with current temperatures already about 1.4C above pre-industrial levels.

But on Wednesday, he struck a more positive note, saying the landmark Paris climate accord "has made a difference," Guterres said Wednesday, opening the summit.

"In the last 10 years, projected global temperature rise has dropped from four degrees Celsius to less than three," he said.

Part of that progress stems from China. A decade ago, three-quarters of its electric mix came from coal -- a figure now down to half. Its booming exports of solar panels, batteries, and electric cars are cutting emissions abroad as well.

E.Cruz--SFF