San Francisco Frontiers - China 'elephant in the room' at fraught Pacific Islands summit

Alongside its 18 member states including key players Australia and New Zealand, gatherings of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) are typically attended by dozens more countries as observers or dialogue partners.

But this year's host, close China ally the Solomon Islands, has barred most of those partners from attending -- sparking accusations that Honiara was working on Beijing's behest to exclude long-time participant Taiwan.

The move prompted condemnation from fellow Pacific Island nations, of which three -- Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu -- still recognise Taipei.

And observers warn the issue could even split the summit -- undermining essential regional cooperation on everything from climate change, health, security and transnational crime.

New Zealand's top diplomat Winston Peters told AFP last month it was "obvious" that outside forces were meddling in the summit.

"Outsiders are now telling us who we can have as guests. That's not the Pacific way," he said.

Communist China has never ruled Taiwan, but Beijing insists the island is part of its territory, has threatened to use force to bring it under its control and bristles at any official diplomatic recognition of the democratic island.

The two have long vied for influence in the South Pacific, with Beijing spending hundreds of millions of dollars building sports stadiums, presidential palaces, hospitals and roads across the vast region.

Mihai Sora, who heads the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, told AFP that China had become the "elephant in the room".

"China is effectively shaping the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting, and it's not actually a member of the Pacific Islands Forum," said the former Australian diplomat.

- Touchy talks -

Meetings will kick off on Wednesday in the Solomons capital of Honiara and will primarily take place behind closed doors.

On Thursday they will head to the picturesque seaside settlement of Munda, over 300 kilometres (186 miles) from the capital for a "leaders retreat".

But there may be little they can agree on -- beyond China, key issues causing friction include a review of the Forum's regional architecture, which will decide who can participate.

So too is cooperation in transnational security, with member states reluctant to relinquish what they see as hard-fought sovereignty to help combat regional problems.

Climate change is also a major talking point on the back of Vanuatu's win in the International Court of Justice which declared states are obliged to tackle climate change and reparations could be awarded if they didn't.

The Forum partners work together on disaster risk management and climate finance, but there is disquiet in some quarters over individual nations opening up for deep sea mining or oil and gas exploration.

- Summit could 'fall apart' -

China counts the Solomon Islands among its closest partners in the South Pacific.

The two signed a secretive security pact in 2022 and China donated police vehicles and equipment to the Solomons ahead of PIF.

Beijing's top diplomat in the Solomons, Cai Weiming, has even said the China Police Liaison Team -- deployed as part of that pact -- could assist in security for the summit.

Beijing has also signalled that it will be present at the summit in some form or another.

But New Zealand officials have told AFP they feared the Forum will "fall apart" if that happens.

Peters, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and other officials have warned the banning of dialogue partners could have an impact on aid being provided to the Pacific.

One expert said Beijing was treading a very fine line in its dealings with the Pacific.

"On the one hand, Beijing has claimed to have not interfered in any way, to respect Pacific forum centrality and processes and so forth," Anna Powles, an associate professor at Massey University, said.

"But then on the other hand, there have been a number of statements made" that could worsen the split, she said.

C.Williams--SFF