San Francisco Frontiers - Steeper US tariffs take effect on many Brazilian goods

Trump's latest salvo brings duties on various Brazilian goods from 10 percent to 50 percent, although broad exemptions -- including for orange juice and civil aircraft -- are expected to soften the blow.

Brazil's vice president Geraldo Alckmin previously told media that the new tariff would apply to just around 36 percent of Brazil's exports to the United States.

But analysts said it still hits key goods like coffee, beef, and sugar.

In an executive order announcing the tariffs last week, the Trump administration lashed out at Brazilian officials for "unjustified criminal charges" against their country's former president Bolsonaro, who is accused of planning a coup.

Bolsonaro is on trial for allegedly plotting to hold onto power after losing the 2022 elections to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Trump's order, which also criticized Brazil's digital regulation, charged that the Brazilian government's recent policies and actions threatened the US economy, national security, and foreign policy.

But analysts have flagged major exclusions in the tariff hike.

Valentina Sader, an expert on Brazil at the Atlantic Council, noted that there are nearly 700 exemptions.

"The tariffs are not good, but they expected worse," Sader said in a recent note.

She predicts the Brazilian economy likely "will withstand the duties."

"The government seems to be looking to subsidize some of the most impacted sectors, but we might see Brazil looking to diversify its export markets," she told AFP.

The tariff hike on Brazilian goods comes a day before a separate wave of higher US duties are set to take effect on dozens of economies ranging from the European Union to Taiwan -- as Trump moves to reshape global trade.

Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate that these incoming tariff increases are expected to boost the average effective tariff rate for US imports to nearly 20 percent.

This marks the highest level since at least the 1930s, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University.

- 'Off the table' -

But US tensions with Brazil are not likely to dissipate soon, with a Brazilian judge placing Bolsonaro under house arrest on Monday for breaking a social media ban.

While the 70-year-old is barred from social media during legal proceedings -- with third parties also not allowed to share his public remarks -- his allies defied the order on Sunday.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes -- who is presiding over Bolsonaro's trial -- reacted furiously. Washington recently imposed sanctions on Moraes as well.

Trump's pressure campaign has angered many Brazilians but endeared him to Bolsonaro's conservative base.

"Brazilians have not taken well to what they perceive to be a clear intervention on domestic affairs and an independent judiciary," Sader of the Atlantic Council said.

"And President Lula has been firm that the government is open to dialogue and negotiations, but not to foreign interference on Brazilian affairs," she added.

"Brazilian sovereignty is off the table," she said.

C.Williams--SFF