San Francisco Frontiers - Polls open in Taiwan's high-stakes recall election

Supporters of Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are seeking to unseat 31 lawmakers belonging to the main opposition Kuomintang party, who they accuse of being pro-China and a security threat.

The KMT, which wants closer ties with Beijing, controls parliament with the help of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and has slammed the unprecedented recall effort as a power grab.

Polling stations opened around Taiwan at 8:00 am (0000 GMT) with 24 KMT lawmakers facing potential recall. Elections for another seven KMT lawmakers will be held on August 23.

Both major parties held rain-soaked rallies in the days leading up to the critical vote, which has dominated Taiwanese politics, newspaper headlines and social media feeds for months.

While Lai won the presidential election in 2024, his DPP party lost its majority in parliament.

Since then, the KMT and TPP have joined forces to stymie Lai's agenda, and slashed or frozen parts of the government's budget.

Contentious opposition bills, including an attempt to expand parliament's powers, sparked brawls in the legislature and massive street protests -- and spurred civic groups to launch the recall campaign.

The DPP needs a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers recalled to gain temporary control of the parliament, with risk analysis firm Eurasia Group giving that outcome "a 60 percent probability".

Lai's party would then need to flip six seats in by-elections later this year to cement its dominance in the 113-seat parliament -- which analysts say would be a formidable challenge.

Whatever the result of the recall and by-elections, analyst Lev Nachman said political divisions in Taiwan were certain to deepen.

"The way that the recalls have played out have been perhaps some of the most divisive language used towards both camps that I think I've ever seen," Nachman, a political scientist and longtime observer of Taiwan, told AFP.

- China looms large -

In recent months, KMT chairman Eric Chu has compared Lai's government to Hitler's Nazi regime, while Lai has spoken of "removing impurities" to defend Taiwan's sovereignty.

Beijing has loomed large over the recall vote, with Taipei warning of "visible evidence" that China was trying to interfere in the process.

Communist China has never ruled Taiwan, but Beijing claims the island is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring it under its control.

For a KMT lawmaker to lose their seat, the number of votes in favour of recalling them must exceed those against and also be more than 25 percent of the total number of registered voters in the electorate.

Turnout will be critical and both sides have been lobbying their supporters for weeks to get out to vote before polling stations close.

Z.Sanchez--SFF