San Francisco Frontiers - Rome to host Ukraine recovery conference as US support falters

The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in the Italian capital on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of mobilising investments -- notably private sector funds -- for Kyiv as it faces its fourth year of conflict.

The meeting, which will also be attended by EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz among 15 heads of state and government, will focus on Ukraine's long-term recovery.

Ukraine hopes to sign agreements on energy, with its power grid regularly hit by Russian strikes, as well as cooperation in the defence industry.

But Zelensky -- who will fly in on Wednesday to meet Italy's head of state, President Sergio Mattarella -- stressed his country's urgent need remained defending itself against intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks.

"Ukrainian representatives will have a concrete set of tasks focused on immediate defence -- the defence of our cities and our communities," he said in an address on Monday night.

Zelensky will open the conference -- an annual event since Russia's February 2022 invasion -- on Thursday morning with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italian officials said.

The United States, formerly Ukraine's biggest backer, will be represented by President Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg.

Trump criticised the tens of billions of dollars in support and weapons sent to Kyiv under the Biden administration, and has announced no new military aid packages since taking office in January.

But the president on Monday said the United States would send additional weapons to Ukraine, a few days after announcing he was halting some weapons shipments.

- A long time -

Donations of military, financial and humanitarian aid from European countries have so far filled the gap left by the US withdrawal, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker.

But whether European countries can sustain that level of support in the long run remains to be seen.

"There is understanding that the war might continue for a long time," noted analyst Tymofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics.

At the same time, Ukraine is contending with "how difficult it is to secure support from the EU and from the United States in particular", he said.

The World Bank estimates that the reconstruction and recovery will cost $524 billion over the next decade, approximately 2.8 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024.

That recovery will be "difficult to achieve" without private investors, the Italian government said.

More than 2,000 companies -- around 500 of them Italian -- are due to attend the Rome conference, as well as members of civil society.

But convincing investors remains a challenge for Ukraine as the war grinds on, with talks pushed by Washington so far making no progress.

"The recovery of our state is a real, daily process that continues despite constant shelling from Russia," Oleksii Kuleba, minister for the recovery of Ukraine, insisted in a statement to AFP.

"We will present specific achievements, examples of effective cooperation, and new projects that investors can join today," he said.

The Trump administration has adopted a more transactional approach to its Ukraine support.

Washington and Kyiv in April signed a landmark minerals deal that will see them jointly develop Ukraine's natural resources, with some revenues going to a joint recovery fund for the war-torn country.

As well as investments, the Rome conference will address Ukraine's hopes of joining the European Union and, after years in which many Ukrainians were called up to fight or fled, the question of human capital.

I.Wright--SFF