San Francisco Frontiers - Graft case piles pressure on Turkey's main opposition

The hearing, which takes place on Monday at an Ankara court, could render null and void the result of a leadership primary within the Republican People's Party (CHP) in November 2023 on grounds of alleged fraud -- thereby overturning the election of leader Ozgur Ozel.

In February, the Ankara public prosecutor opened an investigation into allegations of vote buying at the congress which resulted in Ozel defeating longtime incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

The CHP has denied the allegations.

The outcome could see several CHP figures -- including jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu -- facing up to three years in prison and a political ban for graft, Turkish media reported.

And if the election result is cancelled, the party leadership would almost certainly revert to 76-year-old Kilicdaroglu.

He was ousted five months after losing a bitterly fought presidential campaign against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that was widely seen as the most important vote in generations, leaving the party in crisis.

- Taming the opposition -

"This is a bid to reshape the CHP and create an opposition that is controlled by a government which is becoming more and more authoritarian," Berk Esen, a political science expert at Istanbul's Sabanci University, told AFP.

"This will provoke a split within the party, putting a weak, defeated leader in charge whom the voters don't want any more," he said.

Kilicdaroglu has already said he would be willing to take on the party leadership again if the court overturned the primary result, sparking uproar within the CHP.

"It would be out of the question to not recognise such a verdict. Would it be better if a trustee was appointed to lead the party?" he said, also voicing his disapproval of the mass protests called by the CHP following Imamoglu's arrest and jailing in March.

Widely seen as the only politician capable of defeating Erdogan at the ballot box, Imamoglu was arrested in connection with a graft and terror probe which the CHP has denounced as groundless.

He was jailed on the day that he was named CHP's candidate for the 2028 presidential race, his removal sparking Turkey's worst street unrest since 2013.

"I feel a deep sense of betrayal. I cannot stomach such remarks when so many people are in prison," Imamoglu said in response to Kilicdaroglu's remarks.

"Kilicdaroglu is a politician who will be remembered very badly. Some accuse him of working for (Erdogan's ruling) AKP but I think it's more a case of his ambition knowing no bounds," said Esen.

"He is collaborating with an authoritarian government in order to get his own power back."

Following Imamoglu's arrest, Ozel went from being a relatively low-profile leader to the face of the protests, his impassioned speeches sharpening both his own image and that of the CHP, which has since held rallies across the country and is now leading the polls.

According to a survey by Ank-Ar Research published last week, if an election were to be held now, the CHP would win 34.6 percent, more than five percentage points higher than the 29.4 percent for the AKP.

And the government is not happy.

- No more demonstrations -

"From the government's perspective, it is crucial they get the CHP off the streets because Ozel is seen as dangerous," said Eren Aksoyoglu, an expert in political communication.

"By contrast, Kilicdaroglu is making conciliatory noises to those in power, saying he no longer wants any demonstrations and that he is ready to negotiate a change to the constitution," he said.

If he were to take over the party leadership, it would "put the CHP in a position where it was negotiating with the government rather than fighting it," agreed Esen.

Observers say a more sympathetic opposition would give Erdogan much greater room for manoeuvre in the government's negotiations with the PKK after the Kurdish militants said they were ending their decades-long armed struggle.

It could also help the government push through a constitutional amendment to allow Erdogan to extend his term in office beyond 2028 -- a step that would require opposition support to be voted through.

"I don't think Kilicdaroglu would be able to hold on to the CHP leadership in the long term, but if the process (of leadership change) is drawn out over the course of a year, for example, that would let the government to change the constitution," said Esen.

And that would spell "total disaster for the opposition", he said.

In any event, Monday's hearing would likely spark "a new wave of protest, which will have economic and political consequences for the government", he added.

D.Brown--SFF