San Francisco Frontiers - New York mayoral vote floors Democratic establishment

The little-known state legislator, a proud "democratic socialist," is now favorite to win November's election and become a major voice in the battle between progressives and the establishment wing for the party's soul.

Mamdani, just 33, was at a lowly one percent in the polls in February, but saw off three-term former New York governor Andrew Cuomo with a populist campaign that has Democrats nationwide taking notice ahead of next year's midterm elections.

"The race shows Democratic voters are growing tired of the same old faces and they're willing to bet on newcomers," said political strategist Andrew Koneschusky, a top former Democratic Senate aide.

"Looking ahead, we may see more competitive Democratic primaries and more upsets like this. That's bad news for establishment Democrats, but can be good for the party overall."

Democrats have struggled to make their case as a credible alternative to Republicans since Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat to Trump -- seen in part as repudiation of identity politics and so-called "woke" ideology.

But the man who would be his city's first Muslim mayor embraced his identity, courting the one million New York members of his faith where they live -- in the city's many mosques and community centers.

- 'Young Cardamom' -

He also presented himself as the candidate of generational change, reaching out to fellow millennials with a smart communications strategy dominated by short-form viral videos.

He bested Cuomo, a towering figure in Democratic politics, by combining his social media savvy with a "go everywhere" street campaign that made his much less visible opponent look complacent.

Born in Uganda, Mamdani is the son of renowned historian Mahmood Mamdani and filmmaker Mira Nair, who directed the classic "Salaam Bombay!"

Curious voters wanting to learn more about his colorful back story shared old hip hop videos from his previous life as a musician, rapping under the moniker "Young Cardamom."

Youth activist David Hogg, who was kicked out of the Democratic National Committee leadership after annoying the party's old guard in a row about aging candidates, maintains that likability was a key factor.

He is "infectiously, and relentlessly positive in a way I have seen few politicians ever be," Hogg said, arguing that Mamdani's appeal went well beyond his policy proposals.

But his platform was vital too, according to Koneschusky, who says Mamdani has demonstrated to Democrats slow to see the penny drop that, in the Trump era, economic populism works.

Mamdani focused relentlessly on the cost of living crisis -- floating rent freezes, free buses and even government-run grocery stores.

- 'Death knell' -

"We've seen the effectiveness of an economic message time and again. It's what propelled Trump in last year's presidential election and it's what propelled Mamdani," Koneschusky said.

"It's so blatantly obvious that this is where the Democratic message should be centered and yet the party can't seem to universally embrace this simple truth."

Some analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the result -- a single primary victory against an establishment favorite with a lot of baggage.

Cuomo is accused of having lied about his role in the Covid pandemic and mismanaging the crisis, and he resigned in disgrace over sex scandals.

Others point out that Democratic nominees have lost around half of the last 15 New York City mayoral races, and that the city's denizens could easily change tack when it comes to the mayoral election itself.

But political commentator Bill Kristol, chief of staff from 1989-93 to then vice president Dan Quayle, expects Democrats to still be feeling the aftershocks of the New York earthquake come the 2026 midterms, when seats in both chambers of Congress will be at stake.

"It should be a death knell for an ossified Democratic establishment that needs to be put out of its misery," Kristol wrote in his daily newsletter for conservative outlet The Bulwark.

"And it should be a wake-up call for non-socialist Democrats to show some of the audacity and the ability of Mamdani."

V.Perez--SFF