San Francisco Frontiers - Japan PM to face tough upper house election on July 20

Ishiba, 68, has been head of a minority government since October, when he led the ruling coalition to its worst general election result in 15 years.

Voters in Tokyo on Sunday also knocked his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) from its position as the largest group in the city assembly, in a local election seen as a bellwether for the upcoming national vote.

The LDP has led Japan almost continuously since 1955, and observers see the country's opposition parties as too divided to mount a credible challenge to its power.

But the election for parliament's upper house, required by law to take place following the most recent lawmakers' session, could still be tough for Ishiba.

"We must respond properly to high prices, and create a Japan where people can live with peace of mind," the prime minister told reporters on Monday evening.

"We are determined to sincerely appeal to the Japanese people so they feel tomorrow will be better than today."

Half of the 248 upper house seats are up for grabs in July's election, with the winners expected to serve a six-year term. There will also be a by-election for one vacant seat in Tokyo.

The LDP coalition, which currently holds 141 upper house seats, needs to win at least 50 to achieve Ishiba's goal of maintaining a simple majority.

Rice prices have more than doubled over the past year in Japan, due to shortages driven by a supply-chain snarl-up.

Government efforts to bring the price of the grain down by releasing emergency stockpiles have helped approval ratings for Ishiba's cabinet tick up from rock-bottom.

A poll published early June by public broadcaster NHK showed that 39 percent approved of the cabinet, up from a low of 33 percent in May.

Japanese elections often have low turnout rates -- which can work in the LDP's favour -- and the July 20 vote will be held during a three-day holiday weekend.

Conflict in the Middle East could also fuel a "perception that the traditional party of government offers the safest pair of hands to manage international affairs during times of crisis", said James Brady of the Teneo consultancy.

M.Hill--SFF