San Francisco Frontiers - Trump warns Israeli attack on Iran 'could very well happen'

Tensions have soared in the region in the last two days with Trump warning of a "massive conflict" and drawing down US staff.

Tehran meanwhile defiantly vowed to increase its output of enriched uranium -- a key sticking point in talks with Washington -- after being censured by the UN's atomic watchdog.

"I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen," Trump told reporters at the White House when asked if an Israeli attack loomed.

Trump said he believed a "pretty good" deal on Iran's nuclear program was "fairly close," but said that an Israeli attack on its arch-foe could wreck the chances of an agreement.

The US leader did not disclose the details of a conversation on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but said: "I don't want them going in, because I think it would blow it."

Trump quickly added: "Might help it actually, but it also could blow it."

News outlet Axios reported that Trump had said the United States would not participate in any strikes.

- US troops in crosshairs -

Trump later appeared to want tensions dialed down in a post on social media, while insisting that Iran must "give up hopes" of developing a nuclear weapon.

"We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue! My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran," Trump said on his Truth Social network.

Tensions have rapidly escalated in the past few days amid growing speculation that Israel could push ahead with air strikes on Iran.

Trump's Middle East pointman Steve Witkoff is set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman, which has mediated efforts towards a nuclear deal so far.

But Iran has also ramped up rhetorical pressure before the talks, including with a threat to strike American bases in the region if the negotiations break down and conflict erupts.

"If the talks fail, the risk of military escalation becomes much more immediate," said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The United States on Wednesday said it was reducing embassy staff in Iraq -- long a zone of proxy conflict with Iran.

Israel, which counts on US military and diplomatic support, sees the cleric-run state in Tehran as an existential threat and hit Iranian air defenses last year.

Netanyahu has vowed less restraint since the unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas, which triggered the massive Israeli offensive in Gaza.

- 'Non-compliance' -

The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, have repeatedly accused Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, which it has repeatedly denied.

Israel again called for global action after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Iran on Wednesday of non-compliance with its obligations.

The resolution could lay the groundwork for European countries to invoke a "snapback" mechanism, which expires in October, that would reinstate UN sanctions eased under a 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by then US president Barack Obama.

Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term and slapped Iran with sweeping sanctions.

Iran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, slammed the resolution as "extremist" and blamed Israeli influence.

In response to the resolution, Iran said it would launch a new enrichment center in a secure location.

Iran would also replace "all of these first-generation machines with sixth-generation advanced machines" at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

Iran currently enriches uranium to 60 percent, far above the 3.67-percent limit set in the 2015 deal and close, though still short, of the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.

R.Moore--SFF