San Francisco Frontiers - NATO closes in on agreement to meet Trump's spending demand

Trump is pressuring alliance members to announce a massive boost in the target for their military budgets at the June 24-25 summit in the Netherlands.

"Countries in there are well exceeding two percent and we think very close, almost near consensus, on a five percent commitment for NATO in The Hague later this month," Hegseth said after meeting his NATO counterparts in Brussels.

NATO chief Mark Rutte has put forward a compromise agreement of 3.5 percent of GDP on core military spending by 2032, and 1.5 percent on broader security-related areas such as infrastructure.

"This alliance, we believe, in a matter of weeks, will be committing to five percent -- 3.5 percent in hard military and 1.5 percent in infrastructure and defence-related activities," Hegseth said.

"That combination constitutes a real commitment, and we think every country can step up."

The threat from Russia after more than three years of war in Ukraine and worries about US commitment to Europe's security under Trump are driving up military budgets in Europe.

Multiple diplomats say Rutte appears on track to secure the deal for the summit in The Hague, though a few allies are still hesitant about committing to such levels of spending.

"I have total confidence we will get there," Rutte said after the meeting. "Look at the Russian threat. The Chinese build-up. We live in a different world. We live in a more dangerous world."

Most vocal in its reluctance has been Spain, which is only set to reach NATO's current target of two percent of GDP by the end of this year.

But Defence Minister Margarita Robles said Madrid would not veto a deal, even if it did not agree with setting a "fixed percentage" figure.

Diplomats say other countries are also haggling over making the timeline longer and dropping a demand for core defence spending to increase by 0.2 percentage points each year.

The deal appears an acceptable compromise to most, which will allow Trump to claim that he has achieved his headline demand, while in reality setting the bar lower for struggling European allies.

Currently only a handful of NATO countries most worried about Russia, such as Poland and the Baltics, are on target to spend five percent on defence.

- 'America can't be everywhere' -

In a connected move, NATO ministers signed off at their meeting on new capability targets for the weaponry needed to deter Russia.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius estimated the new requirements meant Berlin would need to add "around 50,000 to 60,000" more soldiers to its army.

His Dutch counterpart Ruben Brekelmans said reaching the level requested would cost the Netherlands at least 3.5 percent of GDP.

"The new defence investment plan, of course, is rooted in what we need in terms of the hard capabilities," Rutte said.

Hegseth, a former TV presenter, rocked NATO on his last visit in February with a fiery warning that Washington could look to scale back its forces in Europe to focus on the threat from China.

This time around Hegseth said he did not want to "get ahead" of any decisions from Trump as the United States conducts a review of its force deployments worldwide.

"We're going to make sure we shift properly to the Indo-Pacific and re-establish deterrence there, and then we're going to increase burden-sharing across the world," he said.

"America can't be everywhere all the time, nor should we be."

- Ukraine question -

While US officials are focused on getting Trump a win on defence spending in The Hague, they have sidestepped talks on supporting Ukraine in its fight with Russia.

Hegseth underscored the United States' disengagement with Kyiv by skipping a meeting of Ukraine's backers in Brussels on Wednesday, and is set to miss a second sit-down with Ukraine officials Thursday.

Kyiv's European allies are pressing to overcome US reluctance and invited Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Hague summit as a sign of support.

So far, NATO has said only that Ukraine will be represented at the gathering, without confirming that Zelensky will be in attendance.

L.Nguyen--SFF