San Francisco Frontiers - How Poland's election result could impact EU

As president, Nawrocki's powers will be limited and he will be second fiddle to Tusk -- but he will still be able to keep stymying the government's reform agenda.

"It's certainly not something to rejoice about," a senior EU diplomat told AFP, even if in many ways "the situation will be the same as today" following Nawrocki's win.

Here's how the win for the 42-year-old historian, who was endorsed by US President Donald Trump, could impact the EU:

- Domestic deadlock = EU headache? -

After two years of uncomfortable cohabitation with outgoing President Andrzej Duda, Tusk had hoped a win for his candidate would finally break Poland's political deadlock.

But Nawrocki's triumph means Tusk is set to remain thwarted in his push to roll back years of democratic backsliding under the Law and Justice (PiS) party.

"It's a catastrophe, but not a new catastrophe," said analyst Daniel Hegedus from the German Marshall Fund. "The election results will in practice mean the continuation of the status quo in Poland."

Nawrocki is expected to continue wielding his veto to block efforts to undo hardline laws on abortion and LGBT+ rights before the next parliamentary election in 2027.

That looks set to make it more difficult for Tusk to fully deliver on addressing concerns from Brussels over the rule of law in Poland.

- Support for Ukraine?

Nawrocki throughout his campaign was critical of Ukraine and its push to join NATO and the EU.

Petrified by the threat from Russia, Poland has been a stalwart backer of Kyiv under Tusk.

But the country, which took in over one million Ukrainian refugees in 2022, has in recent years seen growing anti-Kyiv sentiment, a trend that only accelerated during the presidential race.

On the EU stage, Nawrocki's restricted powers mean he has little leeway to play the spoiler on the bloc's efforts to aid Kyiv.

Tusk remains the one calling the shots for Warsaw at summits of the bloc's 27 leaders in Brussels.

"When EU decisions don't require national legislation to be implemented from Poland, Nawrocki's competences will be pretty limited to block them," Hegedus said.

"I think we don't need to be afraid of Poland emerging as a veto power in European decision making," he added.

But the harsher tone against Ukraine looks set to grow louder from PiS in the run-up to the 2027 election.

- Boost for Orban's pals?

While Nawrocki's win may not upend Brussels, it was welcomed by the EU's cohort of nationalist leaders spearheaded by Hungary's Viktor Orban as a triumph for their anti-EU cause.

Orban hailed the "fantastic victory" and said he was "looking forward" to working together.

"We have to take the result of these elections very, very seriously," said Ramona Coman, a specialist in European issues at the ULB university in Brussels.

Coman said the result highlighted the "major democratic disenchantment" that is taking place not only in Poland, but across Europe.

- Green fears?

Another area where Nawrocki is at loggerheads with Brussels is on its climate ambitions.

He is a strong proponent of protecting Polish coal mining and has resolutely opposed the EU's "Green Deal".

He has even proposed holding a referendum on the EU's drive to slash carbon emissions, but seems to lack the powers to drive it through.

Activists say that despite the new president's outspoken stance, Poland is slowly but surely reducing its use of coal, and that the trend looks set to continue.

"The energy transition is progressing -- despite political slogans," said Michal Smolen of the Instrat Foundation in Warsaw.

"However, it will depend on the quality of cooperation between the ruling coalition and the new president whether we can go through this process in an orderly manner."

- Trump's influence?

Trump threw his considerable heft behind Nawrocki, and he was strongly backed by the US president's MAGA movement.

Whether Trump's support helped push him to victory in Poland is a question that will absorb politicians across the EU.

Last month, a far-right Trump ally in Romania failed to stop pro-EU centrist Nicusor Dan from winning the presidency in a tightly fought race.

T.Rivera--SFF