San Francisco Frontiers - Poland to vote in razor-tight presidential election

The two candidates -- Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling centrists, and Karol Nawrocki, a political novice supported by the opposition Law and Justice party -- are running neck-and-neck in opinion polls.

The latest estimates have them tied at 46.3 percent of voting intentions, spelling a nail-biting final stretch of the campaign.

The rivals have been scrambling for the past week to woo voters from across the political spectrum.

"I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone," Trzaskowski told a crowd of supporters rallying in Warsaw on Sunday.

Nawrocki held a rival demonstration at the same time -- with tens of thousands of people gathered for both events.

Victory for Trzaskowski, 53, would be a major boost for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief who returned to power in the 2023 parliamentary elections.

The result will be closely watched across Europe and beyond as a win for Nawrocki could cast doubt on Poland's staunch support for neighbouring Ukraine.

Nawrocki, 42, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has spoken against the benefits given to the one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland.

- Chatting over pints -

Trzaskowski won the first round of the election on May 18 by a razor-thin margin, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki.

Far-right candidates received a combined 21.15 percent -- leaving Nawrocki buoyed and with a larger potential pool of votes to draw upon, analysts say.

Nawrocki was quick to agree to terms set by far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who, shortly after coming third in round one of the election, laid out conditions for a potential endorsement.

The eight-point statement signed by Nawrocki live on Mentzen's YouTube channel includes a promise to veto any legislation that would raise taxes, limit free speech or ratify Ukraine's potential NATO membership.

His campaign was rocked on Monday by the Onet media outlet's report that Nawrocki was involved in connecting hotel guests with sex workers and escorting them into a Sopot establishment where he was a security guard around 20 years ago.

Nawrocki denied the allegations and said he would sue Onet -- one of Poland's main news websites -- calling the report a "bunch of lies".

Prostitution is not illegal in Poland, but facilitating it is punishable by up to five years in jail.

For Trzaskowski, an avowed Europhile, campaigning has become a delicate balancing act to charm some of the right-leaning voters while not disenchanting the left.

Like Nawrocki, the Warsaw mayor also showed up for a conversation with Mentzen on his channel -- where he agreed with some items but declined to sign the statement.

He was later photographed chatting over pints with Mentzen at the far-right leader's pub.

- 'Breaking away' from duopoly -

The job of the president in Poland is largely ceremonial but comes with crucial veto power.

That has stymied Tusk, the prime minister, from delivering on his manifesto that included judicial reforms, changes to the abortion law and introducing civil unions.

President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is not eligible to run after two terms in office, has signalled that he would veto such bills.

But the ruling centrists have yet to vote them through in parliament.

Trzaskowski has pledged, were he to win, to back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week of pregnancy.

On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Catholic-majority Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples.

But the pledges failed to convince young voters, who overwhelmingly voted for Mentzen, a Eurosceptic libertarian staunchly against abortion and migrants.

According to an exit poll after the first round, Mentzen won in the 18-29 age group with over 36 percent, followed by left-wing candidate Adrian Zandberg with nearly 20 percent of votes.

Both Mentzen and Zandberg relied on social media to boost their campaign outreach, and both ran on a platform to end the era of two main parties. Civic Platform and Law and Justice have by turns ruled Poland for the past 20 years.

"Young people are breaking away from this duopoly," said Ewelina Nowakowska, a political analyst from the SWPS university.

"There is a very strong tendency among them to look for new political parties and new faces," she told AFP.

K.Hernandez--SFF