San Francisco Frontiers - Poland votes in tight election as Europe watches

Pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to get 30 percent, ahead of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki's 25 percent, according to opinion polls.

That would put both through to the runoff on June 1 at a particularly fraught moment for Europe as Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on, far-right populists continue to rise and ties with Washington come under strain.

Polls open at 7:00 am (0500 GMT) and close at 9:00 pm when exit polls are to be released. There are 13 candidates in total and definitive results are expected only on Monday.

Ever since former EU leader Donald Tusk's coalition came to power in 2023, key government initiatives have been blocked by the veto of nationalist President Andrzej Duda.

Some Poles are hoping that logjam is about to end.

"I hope that these elections will complete the change," said Hubert Michalowski, a self-employed 50-year-old.

Michalowski told AFP he was opposed to any rightward turn for Poland and instead wanted his country to "stay in the centre and reverse this trend in Europe as well".

- Foreign policy, social issues -

The electoral campaign in the European Union and NATO member has largely revolved around foreign policy, showcasing a clash of philosophies over Poland's engagement with the EU and the United States.

But social issues have also played a major part.

Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to support abortion and LGBTQ rights -- a prospect that has raised the hopes of Malgorzata Mikoszewska, 41, a tourism agency employee.

"Above all, I hope for the liberalisation of the law on abortion and sexual minorities," she said.

The Law and Justice party (PiS), which backs Nawrocki, was frequently at odds with Poland's Western allies and EU institutions in Brussels over rule-of-law concerns. It lost power in 2023.

Nawrocki, 42, admires Donald Trump and said the US president told him "You will win" when they met at the White House earlier this month.

The key to the election could be whether supporters of Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right candidate polling in third position with around 12 percent, cast their ballots for Nawrocki in the second round.

Mentzen is a Eurosceptic libertarian staunchly against abortion and migrants. He has accused the country's one million Ukrainian refugees of taking advantage of Poland.

Echoing some of Mentzen's rhetoric, self-employed 25-year-old Radoslaw Wiecek said he did not want Poland to be "totally subject to the EU".

Wiecek said he wanted "a fresh wind" to end the dominance of the two main political groups -- Law and Justice and the Civic Coalition (KO) which backs Trzaskowski.

For Anna Urbanska, a 74-year-old pensioner, the key electoral issue is immigration.

"I don't want these immigrants to be allowed in here, in Poland. I want us to be able to live more peacefully," she said.

- 'Government would be paralysed' -

The governing coalition is hopeful a victory by Trzaskowski would enable it to fulfil its hitherto undelivered campaign pledges.

Tusk's administration has been stymied from easing Poland's stringent abortion laws and introducing other changes by the head of state's veto power, to the disappointment of some voters.

Poland's president is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steers foreign policy and can introduce and veto legislation.

"With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed, and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition," said political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska.

His victory could mean "the return of the populists with renewed force" at the next general election, she told AFP.

The stakes are high for Europe.

Under Tusk, Poland has grown more important on the continent, reinforcing its position as a key voice on NATO's eastern flank against Russian aggression.

Materska-Sosnowska said the ballot was fundamental for "attempts to stop the anti-democratic, populist trend running through Europe".

V.Perez--SFF