San Francisco Frontiers - India, Pakistan ceasefire holds after early violations

The ceasefire was agreed on Saturday after four days of fighter, missile, drone and artillery attacks which killed at least 60 people and sent thousands fleeing, in the worst violence since India and Pakistan's last open conflict in 1999.

The "full and immediate" halt to hostilities was unexpectedly announced by US President Donald Trump on social media, who said that it followed a "long night of talks mediated by the United States".

Trump later praised the leaders of India and Pakistan for understanding that "it was time to stop the current aggression", and also pledging to increase trade "substantially" with both nations.

But India's foreign secretary said early Sunday that New Delhi had retaliated after Pakistan's "repeated violations" of the truce.

Pakistan said it "remains committed" to the ceasefire and that its forces were handling violations by India with "responsibility and restraint".

- 'Fragile peace' -

The mood was mixed in the border areas in Indian-administered Kashmir on Sunday.

Residents of several villages along the Indian side of the Line of Control, the de-facto frontier of divided Kashmir, said heavy Pakistani shelling resumed hours after the ceasefire announcement.

Bairi Ram's four-room house in the village of Kotmaira was reduced to rubble in shelling and three of his buffaloes were killed.

"Everything is finished," he said.

Hazoor Sheikh, 46, who runs a store in the main market in the Indian border town of Poonch, which was the worst-hit during the fighting, was one of the first people to reopen his shop on Sunday.

"Finally, after days, we could sleep peacefully," said Sheikh.

Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, was sceptical about the ceasefire.

"There is a fragile peace. It's very precarious," he told AFP on Sunday.

"Things are going to remain hostile. Things are going to be difficult. There would be continued low-intensity attacks, probably not by the armed forces but maybe militants," he added.

- 'Terrorist camps' -

The alarming spiral towards all-out conflict began before dawn on Wednesday, when India launched missile attacks destroying what it called "terrorist camps".

This followed an attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22 that killed 26 people and which India blamed on Pakistan.

Pakistan firmly denied any involvement in the attack near the tourist town of Pahalgam and has called for an independent investigation.

Islamabad immediately responded to the strikes with heavy artillery fire and claimed to have downed five fighter jets -- something India has not commented on -- before it said it launched its own strikes on Indian cities on Saturday.

Militants have stepped up operations in Kashmir since 2019, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist government revoked the region's limited autonomy and took it under direct rule from New Delhi.

The neighbours claim Kashmir in full but administer separate portions of it since the sub-continent was partitioned before independence from British rule in 1947.

- 'Positive step' -

"The ceasefire is a positive step," said Bilal Shabbir, an IT consultant in Muzaffarabad, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

"In war, it's not just soldiers who die, it's mostly civilians -- and in this case, it would have been the people of Kashmir."

On X, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country -- which has long sought international mediation in Kashmir -- "appreciates" the US intervention.

India has consistently opposed mediation, however, and observers were sceptical of the truce.

China, which borders India and Pakistan, said Beijing was "willing to continue playing a constructive role" and remained concerned with any escalation, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.

"The days ahead will be critical to see whether the ceasefire holds and gives way to relative normalcy," read an editorial in Dawn, Pakistan's leading English language newspaper.

"While foreign friends can certainly help create a conducive atmosphere, it is Islamabad and New Delhi that will have to do the heavy lifting themselves to secure peace."

burs-ach/stu

Z.Phillips--SFF