San Francisco Frontiers - Trump faces Mideast tensions on return to his 'happy place'

While Israel's war in Gaza and Iran's nuclear program will loom large over Trump's first major foreign trip of his second term, the White House said he looked forward to a "historic return" to the region.

Eight years ago Trump also chose Riyadh for his first overseas trip as president -- when he memorably posed over a glowing orb with the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

His decision to once more bypass traditional Western allies to visit the oil-rich Gulf states underscores their increasingly pivotal geopolitical role -- as well as his own business ties there.

"It's hard for me to escape the idea that President Trump is going to the Gulf because this is his happy place," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They'll be keen to make deals. They'll flatter him and not criticize him, and they'll treat his family members as past and future business partners."

- 'Historic return' -

Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi are expected to pull out all the stops for Trump, who's making his first major overseas trip after briefly attending the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome.

The wealthy Arab states will mix pomp and ceremony for the 78-year-old billionaire with deals that could span defense, aviation, energy and artificial intelligence.

"The president looks forward to embarking on his historic return to the Middle East" to promote a vision where "extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges," spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Friday.

But he will not be able to avoid the long list of regional crises, including the war in Gaza, the Huthi rebels in Yemen and Syria's post-Assad turmoil.

The Gulf states have played a key diplomatic role under Trump 2.0. Qatar has been a major broker between Hamas and Israel while Saudi Arabia has facilitated talks on the war in Ukraine.

"Trump is coming to the Gulf first because this region has become a geopolitical and financial center of gravity," Anna Jacobs, non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told AFP.

In Riyadh, Trump will meet the leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman.

But one place that is not on the itinerary is Israel, the United States' closest ally in the region.

That has sparked speculation about tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel has set Trump's trip as the deadline for a ceasefire deal with Hamas before launching its plan for the "conquest" of Gaza and the displacement of most Palestinians there.

Trump has however taken an increasingly hands-off approach, although the United States says it is working with Israel on a US-led plan to get aid into the blockaded enclave.

Efforts to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, which Trump also sought during his first term, are likely to stay on the backburner as Riyadh says it first needs to see progress towards a Palestinian state.

- 'Monetizing MAGA' -

Iran will meanwhile also be high on the agenda. Washington and Tehran will hold the latest round of indirect talks on Iran's nuclear program in Oman on Sunday.

Iran has also reacted furiously after Trump said he was deciding whether to announce during the trip that he would change how the United States refers to the Gulf, from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Arabia.

One thing that the White House says won't be on the agenda is Trump's own businesses.

Last month, the Trump Organization struck its first luxury real estate deal in Qatar, and released details of a billion-dollar skyscraper in Dubai whose apartments can be bought in cryptocurrency.

Trump's son Eric was promoting a crypto firm in Dubai while Don Jr prepared to talk about "Monetizing MAGA" in Doha.

But the White House denied Trump was cashing in.

"It's frankly ridiculous that anyone... would even suggest that President Trump is doing anything for his own benefit," Leavitt said.

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G.Collins--SFF